Yes! and the Foul

Praying that the 2010 plan pays off

Is there a backup plan?

Feb 19

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Trade Thoughts at 3:24 pm | 3 Comments Tags: ,

Despite the impressive, necessary, risky and costly steps taken by Donnie to clear enough cap space this summer for 2 max guys, I’m still not one for thinking that Lebron is coming to New York.  Still don’t think Wade is coming.  Bosh, maybe.  Joe Johnson, maybe.

Are Bosh and Johnson max players?  I don’t think so.  Maybe they are 4/5th’s of a max contract, but not totally maxed out guys.  It’s taken a heck of a surrounding cast to get either Bosh or Johnson to really shine this season, and the Knicks being maxed out would make surrounding them with a solid cast next to impossible.

Will all 4 of these guys get max money?  Probably.  There are a lot of teams that cleared a lot of cap room, and after these 4 guys there aren’t too many good players to spend the money on.  This might be the last time for a team to splurge before the lockout happens.

Is it a disaster if the Knicks don’t sign one of these 4 dudes?  My initial feeling was yes, but the more I think about it, I’m inclined to say no because there is some incredible flexibility to be had with $32 mil to spend.  Next year we’ll have Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas as potential core players returning.   To be optimistic for once, lets say Spanish Chocolate fits in really well, and lets say McGrady shines.   We can pay Chocolate $3 mil, and McGrady $7 mil.   Clearly we need a center.  Looking over this list, maybe Jermaine O’Neal or Camby at $5 mil per is reasonable.  Also, while I’ve soured on Lee big time, we could bring him back at $9 mil per.  That’s $24 mil spent on 4 solid players that actually fit the roster.  Why not pick up Manu Ginobili for $6 mil, too?

Our roster could look like this next year: Gallo, Chandler, Lee, Douglas, McGrady, Sergio, JO, Gino.  Pretty solid.  But, maybe not what Walsh or Knicks fans have in mind.

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All in?

Feb 16

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Rumors, Trade Thoughts at 10:40 am | No Comments Tags: , , ,

All sorts of talk about Tracy McGrady to the Knicks.  Rumor has the potential deal as some combination of Harrington or Hughes (ie, one of their expiring contracts), Jared Jeffries and his nearly $7 mil next year, Jordan Hill (as consolation for taking Jeffries), AND possibly swapping 2011 picks, giving up 2012 first rounder and 2011 second rounder for a McGrady tryout and possibly Joey Dorsey and Brian Cook.  SNYny (which has done a great job staying on top of all the Knicks rumors) even claims that it’s Donnie trying to get a Rockets 2010 pick in return that is holding up the deal.  Not sure how much sense that makes since any draft pick we obtain eats into this summer’s precious cap space, but I’d have to imagine that it’s the trading of picks in some form that’s holding up the deal.

Clearly, this would be a steep price to pay for McGrady, but this deal is NOT for McGrady, it’s to clear the last remaining cap space needed for the Knicks to obtain two max free agents this summer.  Yes, the price is steep because Donnie is backed into a corner (having made his 2010 free agency plans obvious — how could he have hidden them), but clearing JJ is an absolute must.  No one was taking that Jeffries contract back without a sweetener and Hill is the best non-impact sweetener we have.  Would you rather we include Gallo or Chandler?  Heck no.

The inclusion of draft picks is where a lot of us start to get squeamish and for good reason.  If Donnie comes up empty with the free agent class this summer, this franchise would appear to be toast with no picks to look forward to and no apparent fall back plan.  But, as long as Donnie has the foresight to add lottery protection to any traded picks — an absolute must — then I’m behind the deal.  That way, if we crash and burn we’ll still have those lottery protected picks to save us.  And, remember, in all likelihood we can always just buy some late first round picks in the future (as we bought the Lakers pick which resulted in Toney Douglas).

What do we expect to get out of McGrady though?  Reports have it that this would essential amount to a 30 game try out.  I think there is some truth to that.  It seems more like a risky, if all else fails this summer fall back plan.   I seriously doubt we re-sign McGrady this summer if we can sign Lebron or Joe Johnson or Dwayne Wade, unless it’s on the very cheap.  How cheap will depend on how well he plays out the season, and if there is any market for a fragile, yet talented headcase this summer.

As for McGrady’s impact this season, I’m a bit confused.  We have Gallo and Chandler.  Maybe one of them plays some more 4?  Maybe Gallo gets a little rest since he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall.  Also, with Jeffries being gone, it seems that Jonathan Bender will be back in the mix, and you have to assume that signing Bender was always about creating a backup plan for Jeffries’ eventual departure.  But JJ’s D will sorely be missed, to the point that it will offset any offense McGrady brings to the team.

And, the team’s most pressing need for almost two seasons STILL hasn’t been addressed — we need better PG play!  Can Donnie make something happen for DJ Augustin or Luke Ridnour?  Could Donnie have trumped the Outlaw/Blake for Camby trade being talked about today, with an offer of “all-star” David Lee?  Will Donnie pull the trigger on a Nate Robinson deal, maybe to the Celtics?  With Donnie’s ability to hide his trade intentions from the media, you have to think there is one last move up his sleeve?

Update: This is the best article I’ve seen explaining the cap situation this summer for the Knicks.
http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=155

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Is David Lee better than…?

Feb 11

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Recaps at 11:44 am | No Comments Tags: ,

During Tuesday’s miserable loss (or comical loss if you’ve stopped taking the Knicks playoff aspirations seriously), my buddy asked me if I thought Mike D’Antoni is a good coach.  I said, “Definitely, he just doesn’t have that much to work with.  Plus the 2010 situation doesn’t do him any favors.”  The Knicks went on to blow the game with remarkably poor execution down the stretch (First, Duhon dribbling out the shot clock for a last second fadeaway three that missed and forced overtime.  Second, Jared Jeffries hoisting a 3 in OT when behind by 2 with 30 secs left, in some desperate attempt to get a 2 for 1).

But, still I can’t help but think it’s the players inability to execute more than it’s D’Antoni.  There’s NO way D’Antoni drew up those above mentioned plays.  The plays breakdown too easily because D’Antoni doesn’t have a guy out there who commands a double-team, and actually in this case had 2 players on the court (JJ and Du) who are so offensively inept that defenses can’t just sag off them and dare them to beat them.  But, really who else is Mike going to put on the court?  Hill played poorly in the 1st half.  Gallo injured his arm.  Yes, the Knicks should have found Chandler somehow on those plays, and I think those plays were designed to eventually get the ball in his hands, but Chandler was a marked man and didn’t get himself open. Coach has to work with what he’s got and that ain’t much.

I guess the toughest indictments I can make about D’Antoni is: 1) He treats his players like adults who can choose to self-motivate or not.  I actually think this is a good thing and like this about coach, but it isn’t the best approach for this team.  But, that’s just the way it is.  He isn’t an emotional galvanizer like Pat Riley, whose players I’m sure were convinced he’d strike them down with a thunderbolt if they didn’t give it 110%. And, 2) The short rotation bites him in the ass when his team isn’t playing well.  He runs himself out of options.

Anyway the discussion led to some thoughts I’ve been having about David Lee, whose emergence as a team leader (mostly in his own eyes it seems) has coincided with the Knicks’ downward spiral.  Despite his gaudy offensive numbers, Lee’s defensive effort has been abysmal.  He’s getting killed on the defensive glass.  He absolutely refuses to take a hard foul to prevent a basket.  He doesn’t make life the least bit difficult for his man, being unable or unwilling to stay in front of his man or play physical defense.  And, I have to think it’s ‘unwillingness’ considering his ability to attack the offensive glass.  Basically, Lee saves his effort for the offensive end of the floor, and doesn’t want to take fouls because he doesn’t want to risk being taken off the court.

His constant bitching and moaning clearly doesn’t do him any favors either with the refs or his teammates.  Lee’s constantly complaining to refs after every miss, after ever foul called on him, just everything.  Half the time he gets beat down court because of his incessant whining.  It just reeks of a player who thinks he’s better than he is and is more entitled than he is.  And, additionally, for a dude who bitches, he never bitches on behalf of his teammates.  For example, say Jared Jeffries steps in front of someone for a charge (something Lee would never do), and gets called for a defensive foul instead.  Lee never advocates for his teammates or challenges the refs for decisions if he isn’t directly involved in the play.  Think Rasheed Wallace (complainer-in-chief) is going to keep his mouth shut when that happens.  No way.  He’s going to let the ref know it.  But, he’s also letting his teammates know it, too. When a guy only complains for his own plays it makes you think he’s only looking out for himself.  And, Lee really seems to be playing with an attitude that says, “I’m getting my numbers so it isn’t my fault if we lose.”

But, despite all of this, yes, Lee’s the best player on the team.  And if Lee is the best player on your team, how good can your team really be?  I asked my buddy, “On what other team in the league would David Lee be the best player on the team?”  It’s pretty grim, but let’s go down the list for sub-.500 teams:

  • Nets (4-48) – best player who has played (not including injured players) – Is Lee better than Brook Lopez?  It’s close, but Yes (1 vote).
  • Minny (13-40) – Al Jefferson or Kevin Love.  Is Lee better?  No.
  • GS (14-37) – Is Lee better than Monta Ellis?  No.
  • Sacramento (18-34) – Is Lee better than Tyreke Evans?  No.
  • Washington (17-33) – Is Lee better than Antoine Jamison? No.
  • Indiana (18-34) – Is Lee better than Danny Granger? No.
  • Detroit (18-33) – Is Lee better than Ben Gorden? Yes (2 votes)
  • Knicks (19-32)
  • Philly (20-32) – Is Lee better than Andre Iguadala? No.
  • Clips (21-31) – Is Lee better than Chris Kaman? No.
  • Milwaukee (24-27) – Is Lee better than Andrew Bogut? No.
  • Chicago (25-26) – Is Lee better than Derek Rose? Nope.
  • Miami (26-27) – Is Lee better than DWade?  Nuh uh.

So, basically, there are 2 other teams that Lee would be the best player on.  ONLY 2!  Considering that in the NBA success is largely driven by the talent you have on the floor, the Knicks are probably overperforming with the 8th worst record in the league.  So let’s give coach D’Antoni a break, because he’s has the Knicks playing a lot better than we should’ve expected.

UPDATE: Howard Beck at the Times has a similar take on the Knicks lack of talent: Knicks Find That Talent Is Hard to Beat [ NY Times ].  Good read, as always.

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How the inevitable 2011 lockout might affect 2010 free agency

Feb 8

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, NBA Talk at 5:01 pm | 2 Comments Tags: , , ,

It’s ironic that the Knicks will have arrived at fiscal responsibility a year before the NBA team ownership finally saves themselves from financial ruin by instituting a lockout after the 2010-2011 season.  For Knicks fans, whose team has been the embodiment of reckless spending and paralyzing long-term contracts for the past decade, this lockout is too little, too late.

The owners and Stern have put out an extremely aggressive proposal to reign in cost and change how league conducts business. To sum it up:

The owners want to take a far greater percentage of the basketball-related income. They want to pay millions less for maximum deals and shorten contracts. Most of all, they want a hard salary cap and assurances that protect themselves against a diminished economy and, well, themselves. Everything is hurtling toward a 2011 lockout, a negotiation that’ll likely feel far more like a standoff.

And from the agent/player perspective, a great quote that sums up the Knicks fan experience the past few years:

I have so much respect for David Stern, and I know he wants to create the most competitive environment possible for the fans, but the current system is broken,” agent Mark Bartelstein said. “The luxury-tax concept is anti-competitive. We’ve created a system where in the midst of trying to sell tickets in the summer, we have teams admitting to their fans, ‘We’re not trying to win this year. …We’re waiting for 2010 or some year beyond.

Basically, if you remember the 2004 NHL lockout or even the 1998-1999 NBA half-season lockout, you’ve gotta be thinking to yourself, “we’re not going to have a 2011-2012 season.”

Here is my immediate concern for the Knicks: Because the NBA ownership is looking to cut the max length of contracts to 4 years and also looking to cut contracts dollars by around 30 percent, will max guys like Lebron, Wade and Bosh have even greater incentive to go where they can get the most money and most years right now?  Or, in other words, do these guys STAY with their teams because their current teams have the added advantage of being able to offer an extra year and a 15% premium over any other suitor?  In light of one year’s lost salary and possibly reduced future salaries, I think so.

All of which means the Knicks may go bust this summer.  While teams are crying that the current labor agreement is financially unsustainable (not sure how much I believe it), most of those same teams have already locked in their stars and assets beyond the 2011 season.  Clearly, they are trying to stay competitive, but chances are they’re paying now knowing that a 2011 lockout will probably cut salaries and do a lot to make team ownership profitable again. Meanwhile, Donnie has been trying to turn team Titanic around, shedding the team of all its assets for the opportunity to land Lebron and a friend.  IF Donnie comes up empty in free-agency this summer, not only will the past 2 years of being a Knicks fan become completely pointless, the future may be even worse.

Or would it?  Realistically, the Knicks may be perfectly positioned for a true rebuilding effort in 2012 since the team won’t be saddled with any long-term salaries (Lebron and friend possibly aside).  The Knicks may actually be able to truly start from scratch with a boat load of unfulfilled cap space, a promising top 5 2011 draft pick, and young studs Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  Can you guys wait another 2 years?

Personally, I’m looking forward to a lockout for two reasons.  First, the league absolutely has to abolish the salary-matching aspect of trades.  This aspect of trading alone has made rebuilding the Knicks nearly impossible.  Teams should be able to conduct business and trades as they see fit (ie. If they want to salary dump, fine.  If they want to take on salary, fine.)  If a hard salary cap is implemented, there really would be no need to keep matching salaries as part of trades. Additionally, teams have to have the right to cut players (NFL style) and not have it count against the salary cap.  It’s already ridiculous enough that the Knicks have to pay Eddy Curry for what amounts to gross job negligence.  What’s crazier is that if we cut him his salary still counts against our salary cap.  This can’t happen in the future NBA.

Finally, what will the players do in the meantime?  During the 2004 NHL lockout, players signed to leagues around the globe, many back in their home countries.  Some, like Czech Jaromir Jagr, went on to play in Omsk, Russia off in Siberia.  Do the international leagues inevitably pickup the NBA’s players.  If you’re Danilo Gallinari, do you sign on with an Italian team for the year?

Lots of questions.  Thoughts?

NBA aims to crush union in labor battle { Yahoo }

Foyle says owner proposal goes too far

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Sell!!!

Feb 1

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, Knicks Banter, Trade Thoughts at 11:28 am | 3 Comments Tags: , ,

I’m looking ot start the week off in a good mood, so there’s no use in reviewing a dreadful Knicks weekend other than to say that this team looks lifeless, tired, out of sync, and generally inept.  Gallo is hitting the wall and trying to do a little too much.  Chandler and Lee are doing what they can, but just aren’t good enough to carry the team.  With my least favorite Knick, Al Harrington, injured, we’re getting absolutely nothing offensively off the bench.

If Walsh and D’Antoni were holding on to any illusion about making the playoffs this season, surely it must’ve been shattered this weekend.  And, really, this could be a best case scenerio for the future of the franchise.  Whereas last year there was still some optimism and hope at the playoff deadline, and that hope probably stopped Donnie from pulling the trigger on any cap clearing Nate or Lee deal, this year we can more easily call a spade a spade.

With all hope lost, it’s time to blow this up completely.  It’s time to trade Jared Jeffries.  It’s time to see if Nate and Lee will accept being dealt.  It’s time to trade Chandler if we need to include him in a deal.  I’ll even give up Hill or Douglas.  It’s time to trade anyone but Gallo to open up another 6 mil this summer.   This season is over.

Hypotheticals I’m in favor of:

Trade idea #1:

Tracy McGrady
FOR
Jordan Hill + Cuttino Mobley + Jeffries

Everyone is talking about McGrady to the Knicks.  I do this in a heart beat, not because McGrady will save this season but because it saves the Knicks over 9 mil this summer.  Houston gets a productive prospect out of the deal in Jordan Hill, a versatile team defender in Jeffries, and potential insurance savings from Mobley.

Trade idea #2:

Mike Miller (last year of $10 mil contract)
FOR
Jordan Hill + Jeffries + Toney Douglas

Washington is going to blow their team up, and will probably find a way to shed/save money in dealing Jamison and Butler.  In this deal Washington doesn’t save money, but it does get them 2 young players for rebuilding.  For the Knicks, it saves them over $10 mil in 2010 contracts, despite having to give up a lot of youth.

And my favorite. Trade idea #3:

Josh Howard (last year at $10, having a bad year) + Beaubois (rookie contract, $1.1 mil.  athletic pg prospect)
FOR
Chandler ($1.2) + Nate ($4) + Jeffries ($6.5, 2 yrs).

The Knicks get their 2010 cap room, and an exciting PG prospect.  Dallas trades little used rookie PG to get 3 players that can help them win it all this year.  They get some needed backup scoring at the guard position.  They get a super versatile, team-oriented wingman in Chandler who can play on both ends of the court.  And they get a D specialist in Jeffries, who they can sick on anyone giving them trouble.

Other cap saving ideas???

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