Archive for category Draft

2011 Draft Preview

It’s my favorite time of the basketball year, the NBA draft. A time of optimism, intrigue and wild speculation.  The Knicks have the 17th pick in a draft with little star power — maybe no star power — but, with a lot of players who seem more than capable of helping teams.  From my estimation, there seems to be little difference in talent from about the 15th to 35th picks, and that would seem to be supported by the wild lack of consensus among the different mock drafts.

Because there isn’t too much talent out there, and because the Knicks already have 2 star talents in Amar’e and Melo, it would seem that the Knicks will draft based on need.  What are the Knicks needs?  Rebounding. More rebounding. A center who can rebound and defend.  A backup PF who can spell Amar’e.  A point guard capable of running the offense in Chauncey’s absence and eventual departure.  Some spot up shooters who can knock down the three and spread the floor for our all-star tandem.

Considering how difficult it is to fill the center position and the inflated salaries big men consequently get signed to, I’m hoping the Knicks use their 17th pick on size.

Nikola Vucevic is a legit center. He pulled down 10+ rebounds, most on the defensive end.  He can shoot the outside shot. He’s not much of a banger (doesn’t draw many fouls), and doesn’t block a lot of shots, but he plays with a high basketball IQ, is a physical specimen and seems to have inherited the professional ballers mindset (his father played for 24 seasons!).

Kenneth Faried measures as a PF, but is deceptively long and would know what his role is: rebound and defend. I don’t think people question his rebounding at the next level, but can he defend centers and strong PF’s?  Amar’e is sick of playing center, but if Faried can take some of the tougher defensive assignments he might be a great front court partner.  I think D’Antoni would find a way to make it work.

Markeiff Morris seems to be more PF than center and doesn’t have the size issues that Faried does.  He also rebounded at a good rate and shot excellently from 3 point college range.  He seems an excellent fit to me despite not being a center.  He certainly adds some much needed front court depth.

Donatas Motiejunas is a wildcard.  Yes he measures big, and brings shooting and a silky offensive game to the Knicks, but his rebounding and defense are poor.  There is a lot of potential there, but can the Knicks live with his deficiencies?

And if the Knicks draft a point guard for the future or a shooter?

Jimmer. I know… He’s another offensive player who doesn’t play D and we don’t need that. But, I’d take him because he’s so offensively dynamic.  A Jimmer pick and roll would be deadly.  He’d be able to spread the floor when he doesn’t have the ball.  He’s too good offensively to pass up.

Iman Shumpert. The anti Jimmer.  Not a good shooter, but super athletic in the mold of Russell Westbrook.  But, the Knicks would be drafting him as much for his much heralded defensive tenacity.  At 17 I think he’s a reach, but it wouldn’t give me a heart attack if we draft him.

Darius Morris. A pure point guard.  Apparently the most improved player in college last season.  He had the best assist per 40 minute numbers of all the prospective point guards, but can’t/doesn’t shoot.  Not being sold as a dynamic guy, but he can pass.  Again, a reach at 17.

The hope is that the Knicks will be able to buy another pick or two later in the draft.  And maybe that’s when you get your guard.  There are a ton of interesting prospects that should be available early in the second round including: Josh Selby (Monta Ellis like?), Norris Cole, Shelvin Mack, Nolan Smith, Andrew Goldelock (“Jimmer range”).  Let’s hope someone owes Donnie a favor!

What to do with the 37th and 38th pick (Part 2)

[ See Part 1 for more potential Knicks selections ]

Seeing that the 2010 point guard pickings are extremely slim, especially after 2009′s crop, we’re looking at a lot of potential big men.  The later you get in the draft, the more likely that you’ll need a lot of luck to find a player who can make a significant contribution at the next level.  But, one draft philosophy that holds at least some water when you get late in the draft is to select someone who is a specialist.  Someone who is really, really, really good at least one thing.  With that I present you Jarvis Varnado and Brian Zoubek.

Jarvis Varnado

(Center/Power Forward, Miss St.) — One thing Varnado has going for him is a cool last name. I swear, people hear this guy’s last name and become convinced he’s a player (I’ll call it the ‘God Shamgod Theory’). From most accounts, Varnado is extremely raw, especially on the offensive end.  But, dang, the dude has one big skill the Knicks have been lacking for forever: shot blocking.

[ from Chad Ford: ]

He’s been the most dominant shot-blocker in college basketball the past few years, and it’s hard to imagine he won’t continue that success at the next level.

He’s an explosive athlete with a downright freaky 7-4 wingspan. He has a knack for blocking shots, is a good rebounder and plays hard on every possession. He’s slowly been improving on the offensive end, but he’s never going to be a dominant offensive player.

Is he Baby Motumbo?  I definitely think that’s a stretch.  Dikembo was so tall and long, and much stronger.  Maybe Theo Ratliff is more realistic, though even that may be hopeful.  Is Keon Clark (without the weed habit) the best analogy?  However you cut it, Varnado figures to be a lean center/power forward who can hopefully run the floor and help on the boards.  But, for a team like the Knicks that have sucked so bad the last few years at blocking shots, he sure would be a refreshing presence.

Brian Zoubek

(Center, Duke) — Duke faithful waited and waited and waited and waited to get something out of the big senior, and finally saw their patience rewarded with a move to the starting lineup in the second half of the season that contributed to Duke’s run to the NCAA championship.

Yeah, he sorta has “big white stiff robot” written all over him, but that’s pretty unfair, especially if he’s being considered as a late second round pick.

Basically, Zoubek’s one skill is offensive rebounding, a skill that translates very well to the next level, and something the Knicks were lacking last year.  Even though he doesn’t come off as a D’Antoni player, this made me thing otherwise…

[ from DraftExpress ]

The country’s most dominant offensive rebounder on a per-minute basis, Zoubek played as important a role as any player in Duke’s journey to a national championship.

Zoubek served as an efficient cog in Duke’s offense, doing a lot of little things to open things up for his teammates. Most of Duke’s halfcourt sets started with Zoubek setting a screen at the top of the key, something he does as well as anyone because of his massive frame , high motor, and great strength.

Zoubek also passes well out of the high post. Duke’s offense frequently went through him on quick ball reversals, where he did an effective job finding the open man at the 3-point line.

Craig Brackins

(Power Forward, Iowa St.) — Brackins saw his numbers decrease in his senior year, after being considered a potential lottery pick last year, but returning to school. Basically, from what I get is, he was the only offensive option on a really bad Iowa St. team. His one thing? He can score. Might be a nice offensive option of the bench.

Luke Harangody

(No position, Notre Dame) — Well, if there is a more unorthodox player in the draft, I don’t know him.  His game is so ugly he doesn’t even have any entertaining YouTube clips to show.  People have no idea what position he’d play in the pros.  But, Harangody is the epitome of college player that can’t do anything more to help his cause.  Despite the illustrious college career, people just can’t figure him out.

He seems to be burdened by the same “Is he athletic enough?” questions that Kevin Love had to deal with.  But, like Love, he has those qualities you just can’t teach (sans the incredible passing).  He has a real nose for the ball and knack for scoring.  He’s like the old dude with knee pads that you’d see at the park when you were 14 and snickered at.  But, then he’d school you, drench you in back sweat, and have you asking yourself, “how is this guy doing this against me?!” He’s that guy. I just don’t know how you don’t draft a guy who’s averaged 20 and 10 for the last three years, been a team leader in the Big East, and can both bang low and knock down the long range jumper.  What am I missing here?

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What to do with the 37th and 38th pick (Part 1)

One of the draft trends of the past decade, though not employed by the Knicks, has been to use second round picks on guys who you could stow overseas and let develop.  If a team doesn’t approach the second round in that way, the other option is to take a risk on players with serious question marks.  The “is he really a point guard?” guy.  The guy who is “reaaaally long and has great wingspan” but hasn’t put it all together yet.  The player who “has a questionable attitude” or “once punched his coach.”  The “transferred 4 times,” guy, etc., etc.

For the Knicks who only have 5 returning players under contract (Gallo, Chandler, Douglas, Curry, and presumably Walker), it’s very likely that the Knicks will pursue the least followed of second round draft strategies: They’ll look to draft accomplished juniors or seniors, who fill a positional need (point guard or center), who’ve shown what they can do, and despite limited “upside” can have a role on the team next year.

At the risk of getting all Dick Vitale on you, more often than not a lot of these accomplished guys end up doing pretty well as NBA role players.  Some even exceed the low expectations.  Afterall, first 5 picks aside, what player doesn’t have question marks?  David Lee and Toney Douglas were late first rounders, but were essentially four year players who proved they were basketball players.  Throughout their careers they had shown consistency, competitiveness, intelligence, work ethic, intangibles, and maybe most importantly, improvement.

With this in mind, Here are 5 accomplished big school guys, and 1 big guy from a small school, who’ve all shown the dedication and will to improve that it takes to make it in the NBA — players the Knicks have the potential to snag in the second round.  I’ll cherry pick quotes from Chad Ford’s and DraftExpress’s profiles.

Artsiom Parakhouski

(Center, Radford) — He seems like a classic late bloomer to me who if he’d stayed in Belarus and played in Europe, instead of being a senior who only played 2-years of college ball, would be a much hotter commodity.

Basically, he played soccer growing up but got big and picked up hoops.  You know he must possess the fabled footwork that all soccer players converted to basketball unquestionably have (a la Hakeem or Dikembe), at least in the eyes of American scouts.  But, in all seriousness, he looks like a fluid dude.  He’s a legit 6′ 11″ and strong.  He has 6% body fat.  Has surprising range.  WTF does this dude have to do to get attention?!

[ from Chad Ford ]

  • Legit big man with true center game
  • Decent athlete for his size
  • Strong rebounder
  • Solid shot-blocker
  • Good hands
  • Nice shooting touch
  • Not especially explosive or quick
  • Dominating against inferior competition
  • Needs to add strength
  • Lacks experience

Parakhouski may play for a small school, but he continues to come up big against elite teams. He had 23 and 14 versus Duke and an impressive 21 and 13 against Cole Aldrich and the Kansas Jayhawks.

Sure seems like he has some correctable ‘negatives’ to me.  And, if you look at his game log for this past year he never took a night off consistently putting up big numbers which says something at any level.  And when he played legit big men, he rose to the challenge.  Check him out below, and listen to the DraftExpress interview which shows him to be an affable guy.

Trevor Booker

(Power Forward, Clemson) — This dude seems like a beast of a man.  Think Jason Maxiell.  His numbers dipped in his senior season after a stellar junior campaign, and thus his draft ranking has slid into the second round, but he consistently put up pretty studly numbers.

[ From ESPN's draft blog roundtable ]

Thorpe: I’d lean heavily to Trevor Booker. NBA execs mention Paul Millsap and Carl Landry when they are discussing Booker. Um, hello? Those are two of the top 18 power forwards in the game! Booker has the “beast” mentality with long arms — a perfect combination. If his neck was an inch longer, he’d be a lottery candidate. Who cares about neck length?

Ford: Trevor Booker is a senior with NBA toughness, athleticism and a big-time motor. He won’t be a star in the NBA, but he’ll try to fit into the same mold as DeJuan Blair and Carl Landry.

Fraschilla: Trevor Booker gets my vote too. I have always advocated for second-round selections who have what I call “winning skills.” These are players that bring high energy on the court, a specific high-level skill and are low maintenance off the court. Booker fits this perfectly.

After four years as an ACC starter, he has competed against — and in some cases dominated — guys who are already in the NBA. His power, explosive jumping ability, nose for the ball and experience would make for a great rotation player early in his career on a team like the Celtics. Think of him as a Glen Davis or Leon Powe type, both of whom had knocks on them coming out of college, but helped the Celtics win a title in 2008.

Greivis Vasquez

(Guard, Maryland) — He’s 23, Venezuelan, and a four year senior.  He’s big for a point at 6’6″, but is not quick enough or athletic enough to guard NBA point guards. Athleticism seems to be his biggest knock (in addition to his proclivity to shimmy shake).

[ from Chad Ford ]

  • A combo guard who thrives on penetration to the basket
  • Excellent feel for the game
  • Good passer who can play point guard at least part-time
  • Good motor, very competitive
  • The kind of competitor who makes all of the hustle plays

[ from DraftExpress ]

Though his average athleticism is a significant obstacle, his unique style of play allows him to succeed at the collegiate level. As we have mentioned before, Vasquez is a point guard with outstanding vision and scoring mentality who has improved considerably throughout his time at Maryland. He is a very high usage player, responsible for over 25% of Maryland’s possessions. This season, he is averaging an outstanding 7.2 assists per 40 minutes pace adjusted alongside a career high 1.9 assist/turnover ratio.

On film, Vasquez is largely the same point guard, adept at running the pick and roll, but perhaps lacking the first step needed to be a great drive-and-dish threat against NBA-level defenders. He is still turning the ball over at a high rate, as well, and his 3.8 turnovers per 40 minutes pace adjusted ranks twelfth among point guard prospects in our database. His vision and passing ability are both outstanding however, as he’s able to find his teammates all over the floor in half-court sets and in transition with the utmost creativity. He has terrific timing on his drives and plays the game at a very unique pace, which helps compensate for his average athleticism.

From what I can tell, it’s his feel for the game that should propel him to a back-up point guard spot.  Judging from the video below, he has a quick 3 point stroke, can run the pick and roll very well and has excellent vision in both full and half court sets.  He looks like a potential PG to me, especially considering his 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.  Crap, he looks a lot better than Marty Collins who’s was a somewhat capable backup in the NBA.  And not to be overlooked, Vazquez has spent four years playing in the ACC against Coach K who advised Mike D to pursue Toney D.  That seemed to have worked out pretty well, so…

Coming in Part 2 I’ll make arguments for the following: Craig Brackins, Jarvis Varnado, Luke Harangody (seriously), and Brian Zoubek (no, really, seriously!)

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Okay, now this is starting to get painful

http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2009/11/yes-brandon-jennings-is-laughing-last.html

http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/10812/sonny-vaccaro-brandon-jennings-broke-the-mold-part-one

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Brandon-Jennings-1114/

Awesome articles.

Brandon Jennings is now my basketball version of the financial meltdown – anyone who called it before the fact is officially a genius.

I’m bummed we didn’t get Rubio or Curry

but I can’t get too mad because we didn’t have a chance to draft them.  The Jennings thing will gnaw at me forever.  So dumb.

On the flip side, Ramon Sessions is doing absolutely nothing for the Twolves.  22 minutes a game 6 pts, 2.7 assts.  Jonny Flynn getting most of the time.  Maybe he wasn’t much of an upgrade or answer afterall.

I think my hope for the season is that New Orleans bombs this year, feels pressured to deal Chris Paul, and we trade for him somehow during the season.

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