But inconsistency was expected.  When you are starting two rookies on some nights (Fields and Mozgov), and/or two young players (Chandler and Gallo) who still have a difficult time asserting themselves in games, AND you can’t rebound and give other teams numerous second chances, our sense of how good this team really is blows wildly between pessimism and optimism.

During the latest downturn it’s easy to feel like Gallo, Chandler and Fields are worth giving up for that one legit superstar in Melo — a player who can take over games when it’s on the line.  But Donnie is a big picture kind of guy.  He has patience.  He’s seen players slowly and gradually improve.  He has a better sense than any of us what Gallo’s ceiling is, what Fields potential is, etc.  But, after 10 years of Knicks frustration and a unpredictable team owner, can Donnie afford to not strike a deal, even if it means selling the farm?

From all accounts, the Nuggets new ownership is making a serious mess of this situation and are a big reason for the hold up on the deal.  Additionally, Carmelo certainly doesn’t seem happy about what is going on and hasn’t signed off on a Nets trade (or else it probably would’ve happened months ago).  Additionally, as brought up in Chris Sheridan’s excellent breakdown, it’s clear Carmelo’s new agents want this trade to go down.  After all they stand to lose money, too, if the new CBA negatively impacts how much Melo can get in a new contract.

But despite all of this, no one seems to have confidence in the fact that Carmelo will okay a trade to the Nets.  And, certainly, Carmelo can’t appreciate his reputation being sullied by all of these details being made public.  It might be putting pressure on him, but it also might make him all the more resolved to get what he wants: New York.

I realize how ridiculous this sounds, though.  Shouldn’t I simply want to root for the best team possible?  Would getting Carmelo give us the best team possible?  I think in the short run ‘Yes’, but in the long run ‘No’ and that is the root of my hesitation on this trade.

I keep reading that the Knicks would most likely have to part with Randolph and Gallo (and Curry) AND come up with a first round pick (via trade, which would mean Chandler most likely). Randolph and Gallo both seem like guys who could develop into top 30 in the league types (i.e. occasional all-stars).  Would I rather have two potentially marginal all-stars or one top 10 guy in Carmelo?  I guess the best way to figure that out is to look at what a Knicks roster looks like post trade.  Here’s what we’d have:

PG: Felton / Douglas / Rautins
SG: Azuibuke / Mason / Walker
SF: Anthony / Fields / PE Jr.
PF: Amare
C: Mozgov / Turiaf

It is an impressive lineup with a lot of depth at the 1-3, not that it matters much with D’Antoni’s short rotations.  But, with Amare and Mozgov predictably get in foul trouble, we’d definitely have to pick up someone for more front court depth.  Does Earl Barron have a guaranteed contract, yet?

On the flipside, what if Randolph and Gallo become as good as we hope?  What if Randolph becomes Pippen-like?  Or, being more realistic and lowering the bar a little, what if he gets to Tayshaun Prince’s peek level, something I think is highly realistic.  And, Gallo seems to have an almost Dirk-like ceiling?  But, maybe more realistically we get someone like Peja Stojakovic in his prime.  Do I rather have Carmelo or both peak-Peja and peak-Prince?  I tend to think that I’d rather have the two guys that I’m certain could compliment Amare really well.  But, this is a stars league, and Carmelo is a star.  It’s a tough call.

Think about it.  If Carmelo makes it abundantly clear to the rest of the league that he wants to be a Knick, what other team would trade for him now just to lose him during free agency this summer?  Only a team that is willing to take the risk that they can convince him otherwise—that they have a superior roster to the Knicks.  Perhaps the Bulls can do that.  Maybe Orlando.  Maybe the Nets.  But really, this could be a one team race to obtain Melo if New York is where he wants to be.

And, all indications are that Melo only has eyes for New York.  He just got married to his wife who’s in the entertainment industry and is from the city.  He has his own roots to city (born in Brooklyn), the state (went to Syracuse), and the east coast.  He has a great relationship with Mike D’Antoni where he featured as one of Team USA’s three best players.  His marketing opportunities would explode as a Knick.  He knows the Knicks will spare no expense (which is more than you can say for the Bulls and Orlando).  And, his chances to win a championship might be best in NY.  Here is the Knicks roster if a Gallo/Curry trade goes down:

PG: Felton / Douglas
SG: Azubuike / Walker / Rautins
SF: Carmelo / Chandler / Fields
PF: Amare / Randolph
C: Turiaf / Mozgov / Jordan

That’s solid.  That can compete with any team including the Heat.

It should be noted, I’d really, really, really be bummed to trade Danilo.  I truly believe he has borderline all-star potential and is a great fit for SSOL, especially with his stroke.  But, you’ve gotta give something up to get something.  I’d add Walker and/or Chandler, too if it would sweeten the pot.  I’d be very reluctant to give up Randolph, though, since he’s so multidimensional which might be just as important as outside shooting to D’Antoni.

The Knicks truly have the upper hand in this situation.  Carmelo wants New York.  Denver doesn’t want to end up in Cleveland’s situation.  The longer this goes on, the less Denver will be able to get back.  At the trade deadline, a team surging for a playoff spot or a team thinking this is their one shot to put them over the top, might pull the trigger on renting Melo.  But how much would they really give up?

Knicks get Joe Johnson and Chris Bosh (sign/trade): My thought being the Knicks will make JJ feel like a priority going to him first, making him feel like a star, like the guy they want the most.  There will also be a comfort level with Coach D.  As for Bosh, they’ll also make him feel like he’s the man, telling him “You don’t need to be Lebron or DWade’s sidekick.  As the main attraction on the Knicks your marketability and star appeal in the league will rival that of Wade and Lebron.”

Raptors get David Lee.  Lee gets to control his own destiny a little bit in a sign and trade.  But, I worry that OKC swoops in to make Lee an offer to derail a sign and trade.  Additionally, does Lee want to be in Toronto?  Maybe some sort of super complex 3 team sign and trade happens.

Miami gets Wade and Amare.  Why would Wade leave Miami?  I mean really?  And Amare would add a great inside outside touch.  He’ll think, “if Wade won it with Shaq downlow he can win it with me down low, too.”  Besides the Miami lifestyle will hold a ton of appeal over Amare.

Cleveland gets Lebron. Lebron overplays his hand with all teams, stalls too much and the pieces start to fall before he can control them.  Additionally, he realizes that he and his peeps run the org.  Realizes he’s less of a bad guy if he stays in Cleveland.  Realizes he can’t live in the Jordan shadow and isn’t a good fit with the Chicago roster.  Realizes being in Newark for 2 years isn’t ideal.  Realizes he doesn’t want to share the credit and legacy with Wade.

Chicago gets Boozer. They add the low post scoring they actually really need and fits.

New Jersey gets no one (for now). No one is willing to wait around 2 to 3 years of a 5 year contract to play in Brooklyn.  They’ll have too much trouble getting the first chip to fall in place.  BUT, they’ll probably make it happen at some point either by trade, signing, or in a sign and trade for someone cool since they won’t be encumbered by the salary cap.

As for Lebron, I think the Knicks do have the best shot at landing him if it’s not Cleveland.  I just think the Knicks are going to move hard and fast on Joe Johnson and make him an offer immediately to get something no matter what.

Who can we expect to see back in a Knicks uniform?

Baring inclusion in a blockbuster trade, Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas, and Walker will be back, forming a solid young core.

Gallinari tantalized us with glimpses of how good he can be, but struggled with inconsistency, unselfishness and deferring to veterans who had no place being considered leaders on the team.  We did see, though, is that Danilo has a killer instinct, a willingness to defend the opponent’s best player (and ability to be successful at it), and a truly competitive desire to become a great player. Without all of that veteran dead weight, Danilo will be more willing to take on a leadership role.  Expect his numbers to improve next year, and for him to accept his role as one of the teams main offensive options.

I’m not expecting Wilson Chandler to become a go to guy next year, but he really was able to do it all this season and seemed to improve with every game.  He’s very coachable, has improved his mid-range and post game, shown great defensive ability and versatility, and his overall athleticism make him a keeper.

Douglas and Walker were both pleasant surprises at the guard posltions.  There are some shortcomings (Douglas isn’t exactly a PG), but both were competitive on both ends of the court and showed an ability to hit meaningful shots.  I see their roles expanding next year, too.

Did Earl Barron show enough at the center position to be offered a contract? I definitely think so.  I don’t think he’s the complete answer for the team at center, but he’s certainly an improvement.  It’s actually remarkable that he was able to make a difference and be comfortable in the offense with basically no practices and new teammates who you’d expect him to be out of sync with.  But Earl figured it out fast.  He showed the required effort, intelligence and shooting ability to play in D’Antoni’s offense.

Is Sergio brought back? I have a tough time seeing it.  He was a bit wild and didn’t really read the game that well.  He has ability, and would certainly show improvement if he had a full season with the team under him, but, I just don’t know if it was ‘love’ for coach.

As for the free agents?

I just don’t see Lebron leaving Cleveland.  Even if they lose out in the playoffs.  Cleveland can offer significantly more money.  And as Peyton Manning has shown, Lebron can be marketed plenty without being in NY or Chicago or LA.  Additionally, loyalty to home seems to mean something to him.   Unless Lebron is truly ready for a new chapter, is truly dazzled by the fame and glitz, and has a yearning to reinvent himself (which he has never had to do being in Ohio all his life), I just don’t see it.  But, then again, just typing this paragraph, has convinced me he is coming to NY.  No one knows.  I’ll say this, though.  If he leaves Cleveland, I’ll be stunned if it’s not for the Knicks. Likelihood 40%

Bosh. Ugh.  Not enthusiastic about this one, but Walsh certainly seems to be.  This is a somewhat likely scenario for the Knicks, as there have been some mutterings about a sign and trade for Lee.  Is Bosh really a max guy, though?  Toronto hasn’t been terribly successful with him.  Additionally, Lee sure seemed to have his number in a lot of the matchups this year.  But, Bosh’s D would be an improvement.  With Toronto’s failure to make the playoffs and Bosh seemingly wanting to come stateside, his landing on the Knicks could happen.  But, there are better places for him to go.  Perhaps Miami or Chicago.  Perhaps one of the Texas teams.   I think we can cross him off the list.  Likelihood 40%

Amare. Man, he’s been looking like a beast since the trade deadline past.  Even his woeful defense has improved.  I think he like the desert, likes playing with Nash, and Phoenix is realizing they need to keep him.  Additionally, in Seven Second or Less, Amare seemed to be a bit of a headache for D’Antoni.  I just don’t think he’s coming to the Knicks.  Likelihood 15%

David Lee: Man his offense is so good and keeps improving.  He was essentially the point power forward/center.  But, man, his defense is so painful, frustrating and dreadful!  I can’t help but think he’s ‘good numbers on a bad team’ guy.  Additionally, with Earl Barron, a real center, around his stats seemed to have dipped a bit.  I think the Knicks are looking to shake things up and change the team’s identity.  With a lot of other teams having cap space that they won’t be able to use, he’ll likely get offered more money elsewhere.  I’m thinking he gets scooped up by Oklahoma City, which I think would be awesome.  But, enough can’t be said about how much D’Antoni likes Lee and how much Lee likes New York.  So don’t cross Lee off the list yet.  Likelihood 50%

Carlos Boozer: Hmmm.  With his history, it’s hard not to think Boozer won’t go where the money is.  And, New York might be that place.  But, that place could also be Chicago or Miami.  I just don’t like his health issues.  I also don’t think he’s necessarily a D’Antoni fit.  I offering max money is between him and Bosh, I think the Knicks give Bosh the money.  Likelihood 30%

Joe Johnson. Really, really, really doesn’t seem to be a max money guy, and with Chandler and Gallinari on the roster we should steer clear.  He’s solid, but he’s not 5 years, max solid.  Besides, he seems to like where Atlanta is heading and how Atlanta is a chill place.  Likelihood 20%

Dirk. He’s just making noise.  He’ll stay in Dallas and Cuban will retool the Mavs yet again.  Likelihood 1%

Camby. Already resigned with Portland.  Oh well.  Likelihood 0%

Rudy Gay. Could look good in a Knicks uniform, IF we didn’t already have Chandler and Gallo.  Likelihood 5%.

Ty Thomas. We heard about the Knicks’ intrigue at the deadline and he does have an early termination option that he can exercise.  Not sure where that stands, but I have a hard time imagining him leaving any money on the table.  Likelihood 20%

That’s enough for now.  Next time we’ll talk draft and what the Knicks should try to do with the 38th and 39th picks.

The owners and Stern have put out an extremely aggressive proposal to reign in cost and change how league conducts business. To sum it up:

The owners want to take a far greater percentage of the basketball-related income. They want to pay millions less for maximum deals and shorten contracts. Most of all, they want a hard salary cap and assurances that protect themselves against a diminished economy and, well, themselves. Everything is hurtling toward a 2011 lockout, a negotiation that’ll likely feel far more like a standoff.

And from the agent/player perspective, a great quote that sums up the Knicks fan experience the past few years:

I have so much respect for David Stern, and I know he wants to create the most competitive environment possible for the fans, but the current system is broken,” agent Mark Bartelstein said. “The luxury-tax concept is anti-competitive. We’ve created a system where in the midst of trying to sell tickets in the summer, we have teams admitting to their fans, ‘We’re not trying to win this year. …We’re waiting for 2010 or some year beyond.

Basically, if you remember the 2004 NHL lockout or even the 1998-1999 NBA half-season lockout, you’ve gotta be thinking to yourself, “we’re not going to have a 2011-2012 season.”

Here is my immediate concern for the Knicks: Because the NBA ownership is looking to cut the max length of contracts to 4 years and also looking to cut contracts dollars by around 30 percent, will max guys like Lebron, Wade and Bosh have even greater incentive to go where they can get the most money and most years right now?  Or, in other words, do these guys STAY with their teams because their current teams have the added advantage of being able to offer an extra year and a 15% premium over any other suitor?  In light of one year’s lost salary and possibly reduced future salaries, I think so.

All of which means the Knicks may go bust this summer.  While teams are crying that the current labor agreement is financially unsustainable (not sure how much I believe it), most of those same teams have already locked in their stars and assets beyond the 2011 season.  Clearly, they are trying to stay competitive, but chances are they’re paying now knowing that a 2011 lockout will probably cut salaries and do a lot to make team ownership profitable again. Meanwhile, Donnie has been trying to turn team Titanic around, shedding the team of all its assets for the opportunity to land Lebron and a friend.  IF Donnie comes up empty in free-agency this summer, not only will the past 2 years of being a Knicks fan become completely pointless, the future may be even worse.

Or would it?  Realistically, the Knicks may be perfectly positioned for a true rebuilding effort in 2012 since the team won’t be saddled with any long-term salaries (Lebron and friend possibly aside).  The Knicks may actually be able to truly start from scratch with a boat load of unfulfilled cap space, a promising top 5 2011 draft pick, and young studs Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  Can you guys wait another 2 years?

Personally, I’m looking forward to a lockout for two reasons.  First, the league absolutely has to abolish the salary-matching aspect of trades.  This aspect of trading alone has made rebuilding the Knicks nearly impossible.  Teams should be able to conduct business and trades as they see fit (ie. If they want to salary dump, fine.  If they want to take on salary, fine.)  If a hard salary cap is implemented, there really would be no need to keep matching salaries as part of trades. Additionally, teams have to have the right to cut players (NFL style) and not have it count against the salary cap.  It’s already ridiculous enough that the Knicks have to pay Eddy Curry for what amounts to gross job negligence.  What’s crazier is that if we cut him his salary still counts against our salary cap.  This can’t happen in the future NBA.

Finally, what will the players do in the meantime?  During the 2004 NHL lockout, players signed to leagues around the globe, many back in their home countries.  Some, like Czech Jaromir Jagr, went on to play in Omsk, Russia off in Siberia.  Do the international leagues inevitably pickup the NBA’s players.  If you’re Danilo Gallinari, do you sign on with an Italian team for the year?

Lots of questions.  Thoughts?

NBA aims to crush union in labor battle { Yahoo }

Foyle says owner proposal goes too far

If Walsh and D’Antoni were holding on to any illusion about making the playoffs this season, surely it must’ve been shattered this weekend.  And, really, this could be a best case scenerio for the future of the franchise.  Whereas last year there was still some optimism and hope at the playoff deadline, and that hope probably stopped Donnie from pulling the trigger on any cap clearing Nate or Lee deal, this year we can more easily call a spade a spade.

With all hope lost, it’s time to blow this up completely.  It’s time to trade Jared Jeffries.  It’s time to see if Nate and Lee will accept being dealt.  It’s time to trade Chandler if we need to include him in a deal.  I’ll even give up Hill or Douglas.  It’s time to trade anyone but Gallo to open up another 6 mil this summer.   This season is over.

Hypotheticals I’m in favor of:

Trade idea #1:

Tracy McGrady
FOR
Jordan Hill + Cuttino Mobley + Jeffries

Everyone is talking about McGrady to the Knicks.  I do this in a heart beat, not because McGrady will save this season but because it saves the Knicks over 9 mil this summer.  Houston gets a productive prospect out of the deal in Jordan Hill, a versatile team defender in Jeffries, and potential insurance savings from Mobley.

Trade idea #2:

Mike Miller (last year of $10 mil contract)
FOR
Jordan Hill + Jeffries + Toney Douglas

Washington is going to blow their team up, and will probably find a way to shed/save money in dealing Jamison and Butler.  In this deal Washington doesn’t save money, but it does get them 2 young players for rebuilding.  For the Knicks, it saves them over $10 mil in 2010 contracts, despite having to give up a lot of youth.

And my favorite. Trade idea #3:

Josh Howard (last year at $10, having a bad year) + Beaubois (rookie contract, $1.1 mil.  athletic pg prospect)
FOR
Chandler ($1.2) + Nate ($4) + Jeffries ($6.5, 2 yrs).

The Knicks get their 2010 cap room, and an exciting PG prospect.  Dallas trades little used rookie PG to get 3 players that can help them win it all this year.  They get some needed backup scoring at the guard position.  They get a super versatile, team-oriented wingman in Chandler who can play on both ends of the court.  And they get a D specialist in Jeffries, who they can sick on anyone giving them trouble.

Other cap saving ideas???

Another spirited loss for the Knicks last night against the Raptors.  I actual felt my excitement and anxiety levels budge while watching the second half.  What did I take away from it all?

• The Knicks need a true floor general or leader.  I’ve said it before, but there needs to be someone asserting his will on the game and team.  Coach D didn’t even bother with a lifeless Duhon in the 4th, and instead went with Nate, and let Nate be Nate.  Which meant some great one on one play by Nate and even a few good passes, but a gradual deteriation in the offensive flow.  Like last season, what other options does Mike have but to let his players be themselves?
• Speaking of deteriorating offensive flow…  Al Harrington.  Kudos on trying to tough it out, especially with Jared Jeffries injured, but Al also managed to pour a vat of glue into the Knick offensive machine.  And having him as the fall back option on the last play was not what I’d have drawn up.  Why not get the ball to Lee as the fall back on that play?
• We missed Jared Jeffries in the second half defensively.  JJ would’ve been able to double down more effectively on Bosh and also would’ve defended the 3 at the top of the circle.  If he’s out for long, that’ll be the final nail in the playoff coffin.
• As for Bosh, his battle with Lee was great.  That was some old school, nasty basketball going on.  It was almost like Bosh had had enough of Lee besting him in previous games and decided he was going to show Lee what a real max player is all about.  Lee more than held his own, though Bosh made some great blocks and defensive plays in the fourth to win the battle.  Last night might have been one of the first games where I thought, “wow, maybe Chris Bosh is on ‘that’ level.”

The very different implications for the Knicks if the Nets or Twolves win the John Wall Sweepstakes

As of last night, the Knicks hold the 9th worst record in the league.  Or, we could say the Jazz are holders of the 9th pick in the 2010 draft.  Knicks fans can feel pretty comfortable that our squandered pick, the last remnant of the Isiah/Marbury era (Jeffries and Curry contracts aside), will not turn into John Wall.  Unfortunately, there is a real good chance (25% of the pingpong balls) that the Nets may win the Wall lottery.  And, if that happens, the Knicks may be truly screwed.

Imagine this absolute horror scenerio (for Knicks fans).  The Nets concede they are going nowhere fast and decide they are sellers leading up to the trade deadline.  The obvious bait is Devon Harris, who amazingly has a somewhat untarnished reputation despite how terrible the Nets are.  At 9 mil per thru 2013, Harris might be enticing enough to a team that realizes they aren’t getting in on any game-changing free agents this summer.  Somehow the Nets pull a “Suns trading the Knicks Marbury” and trade Harris for expiring contracts.  By doing this the Nets will have roughly $34 mil in cap space this summer (whereas the Knicks will have about $24 mil).   They’ll be the only team that can lock up 2 completely maxed out players.

Fast forward.  The Nets (with 25% of the ping pong balls) win the lottery.  John Wall is the clear pick.  Maybe the most obvious number one pick since… Lebron James.  Oh boy.  Is John Wall enough of a foundation for Lebron and a BFF to come to the Nets.  I think it just might.   Here is the Nets potential starting line-up in 2010:  Wall / James / Yi / Bosh / Lopez.  That’s pretty frightening.

And what if the Timberwolves win the John Wall lottery?  This could be a dream for the Knicks.  Since they’d HAVE to pick Wall, they’d be forced to trade Flynn, Rubio, or Sessions — Rubio being the most likely candidate.  I imagine the Knicks chances of landing Rubio improves greatly if Wall lands on the Twolves.  And, effectively, landing Rubio may make it easier to attract the free agents we are making space for.

Gilbert Arenas and Washington’s #1 pick for Jared Jeffries, Eddy Curry, and Jordan Hill?