Yes! and the Foul

Finally on Team Carmelo

Archive for category Knicks Banter

Prediction time

Oct 26

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter | No Comments

For the past two seasons, Knicks fans have been rooting in a state of limbo, anticipating a 2010 free agency crop that would redeem nine miserable, brutal, agonizing seasons of embarrassing basketball.   We collectively thought we’d land Lebron, and at times it seemed inevitable and destined (if not secretly agreed to).  But, even if we didn’t land James (which most of us recognized as a possibility), we certainly thought we’d land 2 max-worthy players who would propel the Knicks to the top of the playoff heap.

Clearly it hasn’t happened this way.  Donnie made sure he landed at least one true star in Amar’e, but found landing a second free agent star elusive.  Instead, he went about rebuilding the team with a series of smaller moves, giving the Knicks youth, potential and (probably) trading assets.

His biggest non-Amar’e move was a sign and trade of our one star asset (David Lee), for 2 solid rotation players (Azuibuke and Turiaf) and a potential star in Anthony Randolph.  From there, Donnie wisely upgraded the point position with the best available guy on the free agent market – the serviceable, somewhat average Raymond Felton (who is surely an improvement over the dreadful and deliberate Duhon, but still not exactly an ideal D’Antoni point guard).  Donnie’s shrewdest moves were signing the agile, hard-working, completely off-the-radar, Russian center, Timofey Mozgov (a rare center who can actually play in D’Antoni’s offense), and then drafting the astonishingly capable, though curiously unknown Landry Fields, who was universally slammed as the 39th pick (even though no one knew a thing about him, including most draft gurus who didn’t even have him anywhere on their draft boards).

All in all, it was an exciting post season and Donnie did well.  I think the most troubling aspect to the beginning of the season is the renewed sense of uncertainty about the team roster.  Again, Knicks fans are stuck rooting for a team that probably won’t be the same at the end of the season, as it seems the Knicks will inevitability trade for Carmelo Anthony, and/or position themselves for Chris Paul or some other newly disgruntled star.

Now for the predictions!

Will the Knicks actually acquire Carmelo Anthony?

No. I keep waffling on this one, but I think the Nuggets will be obstinate in dealing with the Knicks.  Carmelo will soften his trade demands to include teams like the Clippers and Nets who will probably overachieve and become attractive alternatives.  Or some big market team making a playoff surge with a now or never attitude (especially with a lockout on the horizon) will roll the dice on trading for Carmelo.

What will the Knicks record be?  Will they make the playoffs?

The Knicks will finish 41-41 and make the playoffs as a 7th seed. The Knicks will take some time to figure it out, but the young guys like Randolph, Gallo and Mozgov will begin to find some consistency about a quarter into the season.  Felton will finally get comfortable with Amar’e, and feed him the ball when and where he likes it.  Toney Douglas will win us an extra 3 or 4 games through pure determination.

What can we expect from Amar’e?

Amar’e is going to average 30 and 9 and be in the MVP conversation. Without a identifiable and consistent second fiddle, Amare is going to step up and the Knicks are going to ride Amare as far as he can take them.  He’ll exceed expectations, and people will realize he is damn good with or without Steve Nash.  Additionally, D’Antoni is going to do all he can to make sure Amare stays out of foul trouble, letting Turiaf, Randolph, Mozgov, and Chandler defend whoever is a more difficult match up.

What will the rotation be 25 games into the season?

PG: Felton / SG: Chander / SF: Gallo / PF: Amare / C: Mozgov

- Toney Douglas will play both guard positions and get about 30 minutes a night.
- Turiaf will back up Mozgov, but not play too much.
- Randolph will back up Amare, and get spot minutes at other positions but will only be getting about 22 minutes a night.  He may even play alongside Amar’e at PF when Stat slides over to center.
- Fields will get time at the SG and SF because of his ability to be productive without the ball, his defense and rebounding.
- Azuibuke will just be getting his legs under him and will have a hard time fitting into the established rotation.
- Walker will get some run because of his 3 percentage, but not too much because he’s a rebounding liability and not a very active defender.

That’s 11 guys playing right there.  Mason, Rautins, Curry and Williams will have to bide their time and be ready for an opportunity.

Tags: , ,

How much is too much for Carmelo?

Sep 28

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, Knicks Banter | 1 Comment

The more this drags out, the more reluctant I am to give up too much in a Carmelo trade.  Funny how I’ve been falling in love with a team I haven’t even seen yet, but there is a potential for this team to be extremely entertaining, interesting and unpredictable to watch.  Teaming Carmelo up with Amare makes us predictably good in a way that I could only imagine would make me frustrated (ie. “why have we lost 3 in a row?”, “how are we not on pace to win 55 games?!”, “how do we not have home court?!”).

I realize how ridiculous this sounds, though.  Shouldn’t I simply want to root for the best team possible?  Would getting Carmelo give us the best team possible?  I think in the short run ‘Yes’, but in the long run ‘No’ and that is the root of my hesitation on this trade.

I keep reading that the Knicks would most likely have to part with Randolph and Gallo (and Curry) AND come up with a first round pick (via trade, which would mean Chandler most likely). Randolph and Gallo both seem like guys who could develop into top 30 in the league types (i.e. occasional all-stars).  Would I rather have two potentially marginal all-stars or one top 10 guy in Carmelo?  I guess the best way to figure that out is to look at what a Knicks roster looks like post trade.  Here’s what we’d have:

PG: Felton / Douglas / Rautins
SG: Azuibuke / Mason / Walker
SF: Anthony / Fields / PE Jr.
PF: Amare
C: Mozgov / Turiaf

It is an impressive lineup with a lot of depth at the 1-3, not that it matters much with D’Antoni’s short rotations.  But, with Amare and Mozgov predictably get in foul trouble, we’d definitely have to pick up someone for more front court depth.  Does Earl Barron have a guaranteed contract, yet?

On the flipside, what if Randolph and Gallo become as good as we hope?  What if Randolph becomes Pippen-like?  Or, being more realistic and lowering the bar a little, what if he gets to Tayshaun Prince’s peek level, something I think is highly realistic.  And, Gallo seems to have an almost Dirk-like ceiling?  But, maybe more realistically we get someone like Peja Stojakovic in his prime.  Do I rather have Carmelo or both peak-Peja and peak-Prince?  I tend to think that I’d rather have the two guys that I’m certain could compliment Amare really well.  But, this is a stars league, and Carmelo is a star.  It’s a tough call.

Tags:

Anyone notice Mozgov is ambidexterous?

Sep 13

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter | No Comments

Considering how smooth Mozgov is with both hands, chances are his ambidexterity wasn’t noticed.  But, it’s this ability that is getting me more excited about his potential than anything else.  When 80% of the big men in the league probably can’t finish with their weak hand, a ‘raw’ prospect like Mozgov is already keeping defenses honest because he can finish with either (a la David Lee).  Aside from exemplifying Mozgov’s skillset, it also speaks volumes to Mozgov being either coachable, or self-motivated enough to develop both hands (or both).   Watch this video for some examples:

Mozgov was quite a revelation for Knicks fans at the Worlds.  Before the tournament began I’d tempered expectations substantially.  But, getting to watch him, it seems all but impossible that he won’t be a rotation guy if not eventual starter.  Everyone keeps talking about how raw he is, but Mozgov is already showing an the ability to block and disrupt shots, boxout, play actively on the defensive end, and show an aforementioned ability to finish with either hand on the offensive end (especially in pick and roll situations).  He also plays with an infectious fire and energy that sparked his Russian team.

Becoming a Knick will entail a lot of adjustments for Mozgov: new culture, city, league, team, you name it.  But, if he finds a way to fit in with his teammates, and gets some consistent playing time from Coach D’Antoni, and enjoys life in New York off the court, Mozgov may develop into a top flight center in the league.  I might be tempted to start him this year if he proves to be comfortable alongside Amare.

Here’s how I imagine the Knicks distribution of minutes at the start of the season, taking into account Azuibuke not being 100%.

PG: Felton (32), Douglas (16)
SG: Chandler (20), Mason (16), Douglas (12)
SF: Gallo (34), Randolph (8), Chandler (6),
PF: Amare (38), Randolph (10)
C: Turiaf (20), Mozgov (18), Randolph (10)

Bench: Walker, Fields, Rautins, PE Jr., Curry
Injured: Azubuike

I have no idea what happens when Azubuike is healthy enough.  Missing chunks of preseason makes it tough to get into the rotation, but hopefully Azubuike will find a way. But at who’s expense?  Chandler’s maybe?  Maybe more of Chandler’s minutes shift to backing up the 3 and 4, which are his more natural positions anyway.  And, then, it’s Turiaf who’s playtime suffers at the expense of a developing Mozgoz and dynamic Randolph.  Or maybe Mason gets the squeeze.

By mid-season here is how I hope the starting lineup and rotation shake out with everyone playing to their potential:

PG: Felton
SG: Azuibuke
SF: Gallo
PF: Amare
C: Mozgov

Bench: Toney Douglas backing up the 1 and 2.  Randolph getting starters minutes backing up the 3-5.  Chandler playing well enough to get contributing minutes at 2-4.  And Turiaf getting sparkplug minutes and when there is foul trouble.  Mason is reduced to the odd man out in this scenerio which is just fine.

Tags:

How Plan B became more exciting than Plan A

Jul 21

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, NBA Talk, Recaps | 1 Comment

So much has been written about “The Decision,” but with some time to reflect, what still sticks out is the spectacular fall from grace that James underwent.  Never has an athlete’s image been tarnished more quickly without a major off-court drama occuring (think Tiger, Kobe, OJ, or Michael Vick) than James’s image.  Lebron didn’t commit any crimes except to disappoint all of us who thought he could be Michael Jordan 2.0.   If anything—and Jordan reflected on this recently—James joining his friends is what the NBA is all about these days: being buddies before competitors.  Thank god for dudes like Kobe and KG.  Wait, did I just write that?!

Strangely enough, during the season, as early as January, I actually thought Lebron would end up in Miami.  Tip of the hat to me!  But, I must admit by the end of the season I finally started to believe New York might be the place if it wasn’t Cleveland. I probably changed my mind daily on what would happen.

Personally, I struggled all season with the idea that Lebron on my Knicks was a good thing.  Yeah, he’s an once in a generation player.  But the fame-whoring, self-marketing, sideline dancing, the nail-biting…  I just don’t think I’d have an easy time rooting for him with my heart.

Instead James, Wade and Bosh have created a team that fans will love to hate.  Almost like the Dallas Cowboys.  It’ll give people a rooting interest, even if it’s just to root against something.  It will give us the most hated team in the NBA since the Riley-era Knicks.  How ironic.

Fortunately, and I sincerely mean it, Lebron isn’t on my Knicks.  With the signing of Amar’e and unforeseen Randolph acquisition, Donnie Walsh was masterful in recreating this team and giving us a season to look forward to.  I rate the summer an A- instead of an A+ only because there wasn’t a PG on the market who is truly perfect for Seven Seconds or Less.

To start, Amar’e was the cream of the free agent, big man crop.  The only true max contract big man out there.  No available player (Lebron and Wade aside) puts fear into the minds of opposing defenses the way Amare does.  I know there are health concerns, but I truly think they are overblown since none of the injuries are recurring.  And, I know Amar’e will miss Steve Nash, but it can be said that Nash will miss Amar’e, too.  In Amar’e, the Knicks finally have one of the top ten players in the league.

Additionally, Amar’e is one of the few players out there confident enough to crave the New York spotlight and the responsibility of being a team leader.  After being considered the second best player on the Suns, he has a big chip on his shoulder and wants to prove he’s in the same class as Lebron or Wade.  He actually wants the challenge of New York and as a fan you have to love it.  Amar’e promises to be the most popular and spectacular Knick since Latrell Sprewell.

Or, maybe he won’t because it doesn’t get more exciting than Anthony Randolph.  When it was finally becoming clear the Knicks probably weren’t getting Lebron, Walsh pulled of the best Knicks trade since Charles Oakley for Marcus Camby.  Instead of losing Lee for nothing in free agency, he pulled of a coup and managed a sign and trade to land Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azuibuke, and Ronny Turiaf (as well as two second round picks).

Physically, Randolph is like a longer version of Kevin Durant. He has the blocking ability of Marcus Camby and potentially the all around game of Scottie Pippen.  Or maybe Kevin Garnett with a handle.  He’s just freaky.  If he can manage to become a consistent outside threat and keep his head screwed on straight, he will be a perennial all-star.

Azuibuke and Turiaf are also welcome addtions.  Buke shoots an excellent percentage from three and plays excellent defense.  Turiaf bring a lot of spirit, defense, and blocking and is a legit center who can play alongside Amar’e.  All three ex-Warriors will give the Knicks much needed scrappiness and defense.

Then Walsh addressed the Knicks lack of point guard depth by signing Ray Felton.  I’m slightly dubious on this signing, worrying about the fit for this team as well as his ability to run D’Antoni’s offense, but I can’t deny that it was a necessary move and huge upgrade over Duhon.  Felton has a reputation for being a great team leader and used to push the ball at UNC.  Charlotte seemed to stifle his game, but he blossomed in his contract year, and was clearly the best free agent guard available.  He and Toney Douglas should be a more than capable point guard tandem, though I worry that neither will excel at the pick and roll with Amar’e.

To round out free agency, the Knicks signed Russian international Timofey Mozgov, a hulking 7 foot center.  Not much is known about him, but there was some considerable buzz about him from overseas scouts.  Most didn’t realize Mozgov wanted to come to the states, and the Knicks seemingly swept in to sign him before anyone else had a chance.  Kudos to Walsh for keeping an eye on the overseas players.  I’m not expecting much from Mozgov except for some put backs and fouls, but if he can do that for 12 minutes a night and play some tough defense, he’ll prove to be a worthy signing.

Finally, the Knicks draft can’t be ignored.  Andy Rautins and Landry Fields were universally panned as draft picks.  But, the Knicks sensibly got guys who fit this team, instead of reaching for fools gold.  The Fields pick in particular got killed, but Fields excelled in summer league and is already making Walsh look smart.  Rautins didn’t find his shot during summer league, but promises to be a three point threat once he gets in the flow of the NBA game and used to the three point line.  Additionally, Walsh picked up Jerome Jordan, a solid if underwhelming 7-footer who should give the Knicks additional presence in the paint moving forward.  It has to be said that Walsh picked up three guys in the second round who could be limited contributors this season.

Baring injuries, here’s how I see the Knicks depth chart this season (with average minutes in parenthesis):

PG: Felton (34) / Douglas (14) / Rautins (-)
SG: Azuibuke (24) / Chandler (14) / Douglas (10) / Walker (-)
SF: Gallo (32) / Chandler (10) / Randolph (6) / Fields (-)
PF: Amare (38) / Randolph (10)
C: Turiaf (24) / Randolph (16) / Mozgov (8) / Jordan (-) / Curry (-)

Tags: ,

What to do with the 37th and 38th pick (Part 2)

Jun 7

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Draft, Knicks Banter | 4 Comments

[ See Part 1 for more potential Knicks selections ]

Seeing that the 2010 point guard pickings are extremely slim, especially after 2009′s crop, we’re looking at a lot of potential big men.  The later you get in the draft, the more likely that you’ll need a lot of luck to find a player who can make a significant contribution at the next level.  But, one draft philosophy that holds at least some water when you get late in the draft is to select someone who is a specialist.  Someone who is really, really, really good at least one thing.  With that I present you Jarvis Varnado and Brian Zoubek.

Jarvis Varnado

(Center/Power Forward, Miss St.) — One thing Varnado has going for him is a cool last name. I swear, people hear this guy’s last name and become convinced he’s a player (I’ll call it the ‘God Shamgod Theory’). From most accounts, Varnado is extremely raw, especially on the offensive end.  But, dang, the dude has one big skill the Knicks have been lacking for forever: shot blocking.

[ from Chad Ford: ]

He’s been the most dominant shot-blocker in college basketball the past few years, and it’s hard to imagine he won’t continue that success at the next level.

He’s an explosive athlete with a downright freaky 7-4 wingspan. He has a knack for blocking shots, is a good rebounder and plays hard on every possession. He’s slowly been improving on the offensive end, but he’s never going to be a dominant offensive player.

Is he Baby Motumbo?  I definitely think that’s a stretch.  Dikembo was so tall and long, and much stronger.  Maybe Theo Ratliff is more realistic, though even that may be hopeful.  Is Keon Clark (without the weed habit) the best analogy?  However you cut it, Varnado figures to be a lean center/power forward who can hopefully run the floor and help on the boards.  But, for a team like the Knicks that have sucked so bad the last few years at blocking shots, he sure would be a refreshing presence.

Brian Zoubek

(Center, Duke) — Duke faithful waited and waited and waited and waited to get something out of the big senior, and finally saw their patience rewarded with a move to the starting lineup in the second half of the season that contributed to Duke’s run to the NCAA championship.

Yeah, he sorta has “big white stiff robot” written all over him, but that’s pretty unfair, especially if he’s being considered as a late second round pick.

Basically, Zoubek’s one skill is offensive rebounding, a skill that translates very well to the next level, and something the Knicks were lacking last year.  Even though he doesn’t come off as a D’Antoni player, this made me thing otherwise…

[ from DraftExpress ]

The country’s most dominant offensive rebounder on a per-minute basis, Zoubek played as important a role as any player in Duke’s journey to a national championship.

Zoubek served as an efficient cog in Duke’s offense, doing a lot of little things to open things up for his teammates. Most of Duke’s halfcourt sets started with Zoubek setting a screen at the top of the key, something he does as well as anyone because of his massive frame , high motor, and great strength.

Zoubek also passes well out of the high post. Duke’s offense frequently went through him on quick ball reversals, where he did an effective job finding the open man at the 3-point line.

Craig Brackins

(Power Forward, Iowa St.) — Brackins saw his numbers decrease in his senior year, after being considered a potential lottery pick last year, but returning to school. Basically, from what I get is, he was the only offensive option on a really bad Iowa St. team. His one thing? He can score. Might be a nice offensive option of the bench.

Luke Harangody

(No position, Notre Dame) — Well, if there is a more unorthodox player in the draft, I don’t know him.  His game is so ugly he doesn’t even have any entertaining YouTube clips to show.  People have no idea what position he’d play in the pros.  But, Harangody is the epitome of college player that can’t do anything more to help his cause.  Despite the illustrious college career, people just can’t figure him out.

He seems to be burdened by the same “Is he athletic enough?” questions that Kevin Love had to deal with.  But, like Love, he has those qualities you just can’t teach (sans the incredible passing).  He has a real nose for the ball and knack for scoring.  He’s like the old dude with knee pads that you’d see at the park when you were 14 and snickered at.  But, then he’d school you, drench you in back sweat, and have you asking yourself, “how is this guy doing this against me?!” He’s that guy. I just don’t know how you don’t draft a guy who’s averaged 20 and 10 for the last three years, been a team leader in the Big East, and can both bang low and knock down the long range jumper.  What am I missing here?

Tags: