Yes! and the Foul

Praying that the 2010 plan pays off

And so it begins

May 14

Posted by YesandtheFoul in NBA Talk, Recaps at 12:54 pm | 5 Comments Tags: ,

The LaBacle is complete.  The Celtics, the best defense in the league, pull it out in game 6 and defeat Lebron James, the best player in the NBA.  But the story will continue to be Game 5 of the Cleveland-Celtics series—perhaps the most curious performance in modern NBA history.  The media hysteria surrounding Lebron’s uncharacteristic performance has been unparalleled.  Perhaps the only other playoff controversy I can compare it to, at least in terms of volume, is when Jordan took off to Atlantic City against the Knicks in the 1993 playoffs.  Just like that scenario, the whole sports world questioned Jordan’s commitment to his team and, ridiculously in retrospect, winning.  Now everyone is questioning if Lebron is a winner.

Lebron has been expected to be a one man show.  And despite all the cliched calls from fans and media that “it’s all about team”, clearly that doesn’t apply to Lebron.  Everyone wanted Lebron to prove he could do it all by himself.  Jordan was long considered a one man show who had to learn how to play team ball.  But, in reality, Lebron has never had 2 teammates half as good as Pippen and Rodman.  Or a coach as good as the often ridiculed Phil Jackson.  Lebron’s teams have simply leaned on him too much and taken all their cues from him.

Fans expected Lebron to simply be able to will his team to a championship.  Just like Jordan did.  Just like Isiah.  Just like Magic or Larry.  But it’s ridiculous.  Basketball has proven time and again to be a team game.  You can say that Hakeem has probably won it all with the least.  But, even he had a team that rose to the occasion.  A team perfectly built to complement Hakeem with are barrage of 3 pointers and great defense.  And, just think how preposterously clutch and nasty Sam Cassell was.  That team had verve.

This Cavs team, Verajao aside, had nothing of the sort.  Shaq was simply old and slow, not to mention withdrawn and distant.  Jamison was destroyed by KG and never gelled with teammates.  Mo Williams had some offensive moments but was destroyed by Rondo.  What was Lebron supposed to do with this cast of characters?

Plain and simple: No one-man-show can do it against what has to be considered the best defensive team in the league for three years running.  Jordan, Kobe, Magic, Larry… none of these guys with this Cavs cast would’ve got by this Celtics team.  It reminds me of a young Jordan being unable to get by the Pistons.

And, it’s not just about this season.  For seven years Lebron hasn’t had a strong enough cast of characters around him.  Nor has he had a cast properly built around him.

So why should he NOT leave Cleveland?!

I’m finally coming around to the fact that Lebron to NY has a real chance of happening.  Forget the latest hot talk about Chicago being the new front runner to land Lebron.  The Jordan shadow is way too strong.  And, really, Chicago just isn’t as exciting as NY from a lifestyle, celebrity and potential money making perspective. And, about all of this Callipari talk, give me a break.

If the Knicks can get Bosh with Lebron, they’d be looking pretty nasty.  Here is your 2010 super-optimistic Knicks depth chart:

PG: LeBron James / Toney Douglas / Sergio Rodriguez (??)
SG: Wilson Chandler / Billy Walker
SF: Danilo Gallinari /
PF: Chris Bosh / Jarvis Varnado (with the 38th pick)
C: Eddy Curry (who magically gets healthy since he’s playing for a contract, the Knicks won’t suck and Lebron is here) / Earl Barron / Artsiom Parakhouski (with the 39th pick)

That’s 11 dudes, with my draft selections, and including Sergio Rodriguez who I’m not too high on keeping.  So here are some potential low cost free agents to round it out:

SF, PF, C:  Tim Thomas – I know that’s weird, but he’s versatile, smart, played well for D’antoni and can probably be had for the minimum.
C, PF: Louis Amundson – Phoenix is going to break the bank to keep Amare, and they have Robin Lopez who starts.  He’d be a nice Verajao-like piece and I have a hard time imagining him get anything more than mid-level money.
PG: Luke Ridnour – Can shoot, and push the pace.  Alongside LBJ his small size and lack of athleticism wouldn’t be exploited.
SG: Kyle Korver – For one obvious reason.  3pt % this year .536.

Here are the other prospective free agents: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-10-11

Pretty impressive.  It all starts to feel possible.

I think the scariest scenario is still the Nets winning the draft and getting John Wall.  With the new Russian billionaire owner (who’d love to open up the Russian market to Lebron and teach him the ways of a billionaire), actually being in the NY market, a ton of cap space, a studly young center, and a tradeable asset in Devin Harris, New Jersey is potentially more attractive than anywhere else.  But, here’s hoping the Nets don’t land the top pick.

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Now what?

May 6

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, Knicks Banter at 11:52 am | No Comments Tags:

It’s hard not to get carried away in speculating what the Knicks will be able to accomplish this summer.  As a Lebron-2010 pessimist, who also thinks the 2010 free agency class is wildly overrated, I think Donnie is going to have to be very creative to turn this team around.  He may even need more patience something most Knicks fans probably don’t want to hear.  I know I don’t want the Knicks to suck for yet another season.  So what do we actually know about the 2010 team and what can we expect?

Who can we expect to see back in a Knicks uniform?

Baring inclusion in a blockbuster trade, Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas, and Walker will be back, forming a solid young core.

Gallinari tantalized us with glimpses of how good he can be, but struggled with inconsistency, unselfishness and deferring to veterans who had no place being considered leaders on the team.  We did see, though, is that Danilo has a killer instinct, a willingness to defend the opponent’s best player (and ability to be successful at it), and a truly competitive desire to become a great player. Without all of that veteran dead weight, Danilo will be more willing to take on a leadership role.  Expect his numbers to improve next year, and for him to accept his role as one of the teams main offensive options.

I’m not expecting Wilson Chandler to become a go to guy next year, but he really was able to do it all this season and seemed to improve with every game.  He’s very coachable, has improved his mid-range and post game, shown great defensive ability and versatility, and his overall athleticism make him a keeper.

Douglas and Walker were both pleasant surprises at the guard posltions.  There are some shortcomings (Douglas isn’t exactly a PG), but both were competitive on both ends of the court and showed an ability to hit meaningful shots.  I see their roles expanding next year, too.

Did Earl Barron show enough at the center position to be offered a contract? I definitely think so.  I don’t think he’s the complete answer for the team at center, but he’s certainly an improvement.  It’s actually remarkable that he was able to make a difference and be comfortable in the offense with basically no practices and new teammates who you’d expect him to be out of sync with.  But Earl figured it out fast.  He showed the required effort, intelligence and shooting ability to play in D’Antoni’s offense.

Is Sergio brought back? I have a tough time seeing it.  He was a bit wild and didn’t really read the game that well.  He has ability, and would certainly show improvement if he had a full season with the team under him, but, I just don’t know if it was ‘love’ for coach.

As for the free agents?

I just don’t see Lebron leaving Cleveland.  Even if they lose out in the playoffs.  Cleveland can offer significantly more money.  And as Peyton Manning has shown, Lebron can be marketed plenty without being in NY or Chicago or LA.  Additionally, loyalty to home seems to mean something to him.   Unless Lebron is truly ready for a new chapter, is truly dazzled by the fame and glitz, and has a yearning to reinvent himself (which he has never had to do being in Ohio all his life), I just don’t see it.  But, then again, just typing this paragraph, has convinced me he is coming to NY.  No one knows.  I’ll say this, though.  If he leaves Cleveland, I’ll be stunned if it’s not for the Knicks. Likelihood 40%

Bosh. Ugh.  Not enthusiastic about this one, but Walsh certainly seems to be.  This is a somewhat likely scenario for the Knicks, as there have been some mutterings about a sign and trade for Lee.  Is Bosh really a max guy, though?  Toronto hasn’t been terribly successful with him.  Additionally, Lee sure seemed to have his number in a lot of the matchups this year.  But, Bosh’s D would be an improvement.  With Toronto’s failure to make the playoffs and Bosh seemingly wanting to come stateside, his landing on the Knicks could happen.  But, there are better places for him to go.  Perhaps Miami or Chicago.  Perhaps one of the Texas teams.   I think we can cross him off the list.  Likelihood 40%

Amare. Man, he’s been looking like a beast since the trade deadline past.  Even his woeful defense has improved.  I think he like the desert, likes playing with Nash, and Phoenix is realizing they need to keep him.  Additionally, in Seven Second or Less, Amare seemed to be a bit of a headache for D’Antoni.  I just don’t think he’s coming to the Knicks.  Likelihood 15%

David Lee: Man his offense is so good and keeps improving.  He was essentially the point power forward/center.  But, man, his defense is so painful, frustrating and dreadful!  I can’t help but think he’s ‘good numbers on a bad team’ guy.  Additionally, with Earl Barron, a real center, around his stats seemed to have dipped a bit.  I think the Knicks are looking to shake things up and change the team’s identity.  With a lot of other teams having cap space that they won’t be able to use, he’ll likely get offered more money elsewhere.  I’m thinking he gets scooped up by Oklahoma City, which I think would be awesome.  But, enough can’t be said about how much D’Antoni likes Lee and how much Lee likes New York.  So don’t cross Lee off the list yet.  Likelihood 50%

Carlos Boozer: Hmmm.  With his history, it’s hard not to think Boozer won’t go where the money is.  And, New York might be that place.  But, that place could also be Chicago or Miami.  I just don’t like his health issues.  I also don’t think he’s necessarily a D’Antoni fit.  I offering max money is between him and Bosh, I think the Knicks give Bosh the money.  Likelihood 30%

Joe Johnson. Really, really, really doesn’t seem to be a max money guy, and with Chandler and Gallinari on the roster we should steer clear.  He’s solid, but he’s not 5 years, max solid.  Besides, he seems to like where Atlanta is heading and how Atlanta is a chill place.  Likelihood 20%

Dirk. He’s just making noise.  He’ll stay in Dallas and Cuban will retool the Mavs yet again.  Likelihood 1%

Camby. Already resigned with Portland.  Oh well.  Likelihood 0%

Rudy Gay. Could look good in a Knicks uniform, IF we didn’t already have Chandler and Gallo.  Likelihood 5%.

Ty Thomas. We heard about the Knicks’ intrigue at the deadline and he does have an early termination option that he can exercise.  Not sure where that stands, but I have a hard time imagining him leaving any money on the table.  Likelihood 20%

That’s enough for now.  Next time we’ll talk draft and what the Knicks should try to do with the 38th and 39th picks.

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Random Thoughts

Mar 15

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter at 12:01 pm | 1 Comment

— In defense of David Lee (who I’ve become very down on bringing back next year), I read this tantalizing bit:

As we know, the major decision from an organizational standpoint is to make a choice on David Lee. To imagine a Lebron James or Dwyane Wade in a pick and roll situation with Lee is pretty crazy to think about, especially if the perimeter is surrounded by shooters.

It would be quite remarkable offensively, to have the 7 seconds or less offense run through Lee, but with superstar talent.  Lee is one of the best passing, decision-making big men on offense.  That said, if Lee is back, it would be absolutely essential to have a true defensive center (who preferably could stroke it from 18 feet out) to counter Lee’s abysmal defense.  Just having Lee play the PF spot defensively would be an improvement.

— Nice read on Danilo Gallinari. There’s been some serious concern about his drop off in play as he’s hit the proverbial rookie wall.  But, comparisons to Dirk’s early development makes one keep it all in perspective.  Yes, Danilo achieving Dirk-like dominating ability is a very best case scenario, but we still have to remember that Danilo is still getting acclimated to the NBA style, still getting used to life in America, and still has a lot of physical maturing to do.  Danilo has the grit to fight through these early challenges and become a special player.

— Toney Douglas is finally back in the picture.  Nice to see him step up and get a shot.  He certainly could improve his court vision, but the only way that’s going to happen is if he gets playtime which will improve his feel for the timing and spacing of real game action.  There’s no reason, TD can’t be as good as Michael Westbrook really.  My hope is that he figures it out the way Chauncy Billups finally figured it out.  At least for now, he shows the required effort, heart, and defense that we want to see.

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Is there a backup plan?

Feb 19

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Trade Thoughts at 3:24 pm | 3 Comments Tags: ,

Despite the impressive, necessary, risky and costly steps taken by Donnie to clear enough cap space this summer for 2 max guys, I’m still not one for thinking that Lebron is coming to New York.  Still don’t think Wade is coming.  Bosh, maybe.  Joe Johnson, maybe.

Are Bosh and Johnson max players?  I don’t think so.  Maybe they are 4/5th’s of a max contract, but not totally maxed out guys.  It’s taken a heck of a surrounding cast to get either Bosh or Johnson to really shine this season, and the Knicks being maxed out would make surrounding them with a solid cast next to impossible.

Will all 4 of these guys get max money?  Probably.  There are a lot of teams that cleared a lot of cap room, and after these 4 guys there aren’t too many good players to spend the money on.  This might be the last time for a team to splurge before the lockout happens.

Is it a disaster if the Knicks don’t sign one of these 4 dudes?  My initial feeling was yes, but the more I think about it, I’m inclined to say no because there is some incredible flexibility to be had with $32 mil to spend.  Next year we’ll have Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas as potential core players returning.   To be optimistic for once, lets say Spanish Chocolate fits in really well, and lets say McGrady shines.   We can pay Chocolate $3 mil, and McGrady $7 mil.   Clearly we need a center.  Looking over this list, maybe Jermaine O’Neal or Camby at $5 mil per is reasonable.  Also, while I’ve soured on Lee big time, we could bring him back at $9 mil per.  That’s $24 mil spent on 4 solid players that actually fit the roster.  Why not pick up Manu Ginobili for $6 mil, too?

Our roster could look like this next year: Gallo, Chandler, Lee, Douglas, McGrady, Sergio, JO, Gino.  Pretty solid.  But, maybe not what Walsh or Knicks fans have in mind.

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All in?

Feb 16

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Rumors, Trade Thoughts at 10:40 am | No Comments Tags: , , ,

All sorts of talk about Tracy McGrady to the Knicks.  Rumor has the potential deal as some combination of Harrington or Hughes (ie, one of their expiring contracts), Jared Jeffries and his nearly $7 mil next year, Jordan Hill (as consolation for taking Jeffries), AND possibly swapping 2011 picks, giving up 2012 first rounder and 2011 second rounder for a McGrady tryout and possibly Joey Dorsey and Brian Cook.  SNYny (which has done a great job staying on top of all the Knicks rumors) even claims that it’s Donnie trying to get a Rockets 2010 pick in return that is holding up the deal.  Not sure how much sense that makes since any draft pick we obtain eats into this summer’s precious cap space, but I’d have to imagine that it’s the trading of picks in some form that’s holding up the deal.

Clearly, this would be a steep price to pay for McGrady, but this deal is NOT for McGrady, it’s to clear the last remaining cap space needed for the Knicks to obtain two max free agents this summer.  Yes, the price is steep because Donnie is backed into a corner (having made his 2010 free agency plans obvious — how could he have hidden them), but clearing JJ is an absolute must.  No one was taking that Jeffries contract back without a sweetener and Hill is the best non-impact sweetener we have.  Would you rather we include Gallo or Chandler?  Heck no.

The inclusion of draft picks is where a lot of us start to get squeamish and for good reason.  If Donnie comes up empty with the free agent class this summer, this franchise would appear to be toast with no picks to look forward to and no apparent fall back plan.  But, as long as Donnie has the foresight to add lottery protection to any traded picks — an absolute must — then I’m behind the deal.  That way, if we crash and burn we’ll still have those lottery protected picks to save us.  And, remember, in all likelihood we can always just buy some late first round picks in the future (as we bought the Lakers pick which resulted in Toney Douglas).

What do we expect to get out of McGrady though?  Reports have it that this would essential amount to a 30 game try out.  I think there is some truth to that.  It seems more like a risky, if all else fails this summer fall back plan.   I seriously doubt we re-sign McGrady this summer if we can sign Lebron or Joe Johnson or Dwayne Wade, unless it’s on the very cheap.  How cheap will depend on how well he plays out the season, and if there is any market for a fragile, yet talented headcase this summer.

As for McGrady’s impact this season, I’m a bit confused.  We have Gallo and Chandler.  Maybe one of them plays some more 4?  Maybe Gallo gets a little rest since he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall.  Also, with Jeffries being gone, it seems that Jonathan Bender will be back in the mix, and you have to assume that signing Bender was always about creating a backup plan for Jeffries’ eventual departure.  But JJ’s D will sorely be missed, to the point that it will offset any offense McGrady brings to the team.

And, the team’s most pressing need for almost two seasons STILL hasn’t been addressed — we need better PG play!  Can Donnie make something happen for DJ Augustin or Luke Ridnour?  Could Donnie have trumped the Outlaw/Blake for Camby trade being talked about today, with an offer of “all-star” David Lee?  Will Donnie pull the trigger on a Nate Robinson deal, maybe to the Celtics?  With Donnie’s ability to hide his trade intentions from the media, you have to think there is one last move up his sleeve?

Update: This is the best article I’ve seen explaining the cap situation this summer for the Knicks.
http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=155

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