Yes! and the Foul

Finally on Team Carmelo

Say What?! (v.1)

Oct 29

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, NBA Talk at 2:37 pm | 2 Comments Tags: ,

UPDATE: In what is surely an ESPN first, Chad Ford admits he blew it and takes himself to task for missing the boat on Landry Fields.  Kudos to the blusterless Ford, one of just a handful of journalists who actually does his work on researching NBA prospects.  In reality, most writers are forming their opinions almost exclusively from his scouting reports (and those on DraftExpress) without giving due credit.   This is why the Fields pick drew such a strong negative reaction — since Chad Ford didn’t know about Fields, no one knew about Fields.  Except Donnie, thankfully.

After sucking for the last decade, it’s been easy to talk smack about the Knicks. Admittedly, a lot of it is deserved—this team has stunk. But, so much of the dialogue has become lazy and convenient, perpetuating lazy and ignorant generalizations about the team, the coach and it’s players. You just have to wonder to yourself “Are these guys even paying attention?!” It’s become frustrating enough to start a new feature: “Say What?!”

The idea stemmed from a conversation with my brother. What got him/us going in this particular case was Charles Barkley going on record to say the Nets will be better than the Knicks. I mean come on, really Charles?! You think the Knicks are going to be that bad? Sure the Nets are improved, but not that improved. How soon into the season before Chuck is telling everyone “Don’t sleep on the Knicks” or something along those lines?

With that, It seemed like a great time to start a collection of both dubious and astonishingly insightful quotes about the Knicks. Hopefully, when the dialogue finally turns positive on the Knicks, we can remember who was getting it right and who was getting it wrong.

On drafting Landry Fields…

We’ll start by revisiting an easy topic: universally panned, second round draft pick, Landry Fields. Or, as he’s now known, our starting guard. I thought it would be nice to go down memory lane and revisit what was said then.

“Knicks take Landry Fields with their second pick. Fields wasn’t in my Top 100. First time a team drafts a player out of my Top 100 in yrs” [ Chad Ford ]

NEW YORK KNICKS GRADE: D
Round 1: None; Round 2: Andy Rautins (38), Landry Fields (39)
Analysis: The Knicks had a pretty weird draft. I can understand taking Rautins somewhat. Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni loves shooters and Rautins is the J.J. Redick of the draft. But drafting Fields is puzzling. Yes, he’s a great athlete who was one of the best scorers in the Pac-10 last season. But he was not ranked in our top 100 and I couldn’t find another scout who had him in the top 60. Maybe the Knicks know something that we don’t, but with so much talent left on the board, it seems that New York may regret its decisions eventually. [ ESPN Insider - Chad Ford ]

A lots of draft gurus and scouts slept on Fields, but it was these quotes from Ford that led to the rest of the media absolutely killing the Knicks for their draft selections. Because of Ford, everyone became an expert on a player they hadn’t seen. Ironically, and to his credit, Ford might have been the only one to give Donnie the benefit of doubt.

But seeing how Fields is already showing to be a very capable contributor, you have to wonder what the hell was everyone talking about?! Next year at draft time, Ford and everyone else will be telling us how wonderful Donnie is the draft.

On trading for Carmelo Anthony…

When 90% of the voices out there are saying the Knicks HAVE to trade for Carmelo, I thought it’d be interesting to post what unexpected voice of reason, Bill Walton, has to say on the matter.

Michael Kay: Do you think Carmelo Anthony is a good fit with Stoudemire? Their styles?
Legend Bill Walton: No. Carmelo to me does not have what it takes to be the great player. He puts up nice numbers? He makes a great salary… media, publicity and all likes him. But, does he help you win the games? Does he make the squad better. Does he pull guys together. I mean, it hasn’t happened in Denver at all, and… I’m a big Amar’e Stoudemire fan. I will hold my tongue on Carmelo. [ Walton on ESPN radio, Oct 28, 2010]

Time will tell, but at least Walton is giving Knicks fans something to think about, instead of the same canned insight on Carmelo.

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Prediction time

Oct 26

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter at 1:10 pm | No Comments Tags: , ,

For the past two seasons, Knicks fans have been rooting in a state of limbo, anticipating a 2010 free agency crop that would redeem nine miserable, brutal, agonizing seasons of embarrassing basketball.   We collectively thought we’d land Lebron, and at times it seemed inevitable and destined (if not secretly agreed to).  But, even if we didn’t land James (which most of us recognized as a possibility), we certainly thought we’d land 2 max-worthy players who would propel the Knicks to the top of the playoff heap.

Clearly it hasn’t happened this way.  Donnie made sure he landed at least one true star in Amar’e, but found landing a second free agent star elusive.  Instead, he went about rebuilding the team with a series of smaller moves, giving the Knicks youth, potential and (probably) trading assets.

His biggest non-Amar’e move was a sign and trade of our one star asset (David Lee), for 2 solid rotation players (Azuibuke and Turiaf) and a potential star in Anthony Randolph.  From there, Donnie wisely upgraded the point position with the best available guy on the free agent market – the serviceable, somewhat average Raymond Felton (who is surely an improvement over the dreadful and deliberate Duhon, but still not exactly an ideal D’Antoni point guard).  Donnie’s shrewdest moves were signing the agile, hard-working, completely off-the-radar, Russian center, Timofey Mozgov (a rare center who can actually play in D’Antoni’s offense), and then drafting the astonishingly capable, though curiously unknown Landry Fields, who was universally slammed as the 39th pick (even though no one knew a thing about him, including most draft gurus who didn’t even have him anywhere on their draft boards).

All in all, it was an exciting post season and Donnie did well.  I think the most troubling aspect to the beginning of the season is the renewed sense of uncertainty about the team roster.  Again, Knicks fans are stuck rooting for a team that probably won’t be the same at the end of the season, as it seems the Knicks will inevitability trade for Carmelo Anthony, and/or position themselves for Chris Paul or some other newly disgruntled star.

Now for the predictions!

Will the Knicks actually acquire Carmelo Anthony?

No. I keep waffling on this one, but I think the Nuggets will be obstinate in dealing with the Knicks.  Carmelo will soften his trade demands to include teams like the Clippers and Nets who will probably overachieve and become attractive alternatives.  Or some big market team making a playoff surge with a now or never attitude (especially with a lockout on the horizon) will roll the dice on trading for Carmelo.

What will the Knicks record be?  Will they make the playoffs?

The Knicks will finish 41-41 and make the playoffs as a 7th seed. The Knicks will take some time to figure it out, but the young guys like Randolph, Gallo and Mozgov will begin to find some consistency about a quarter into the season.  Felton will finally get comfortable with Amar’e, and feed him the ball when and where he likes it.  Toney Douglas will win us an extra 3 or 4 games through pure determination.

What can we expect from Amar’e?

Amar’e is going to average 30 and 9 and be in the MVP conversation. Without a identifiable and consistent second fiddle, Amare is going to step up and the Knicks are going to ride Amare as far as he can take them.  He’ll exceed expectations, and people will realize he is damn good with or without Steve Nash.  Additionally, D’Antoni is going to do all he can to make sure Amare stays out of foul trouble, letting Turiaf, Randolph, Mozgov, and Chandler defend whoever is a more difficult match up.

What will the rotation be 25 games into the season?

PG: Felton / SG: Chander / SF: Gallo / PF: Amare / C: Mozgov

- Toney Douglas will play both guard positions and get about 30 minutes a night.
- Turiaf will back up Mozgov, but not play too much.
- Randolph will back up Amare, and get spot minutes at other positions but will only be getting about 22 minutes a night.  He may even play alongside Amar’e at PF when Stat slides over to center.
- Fields will get time at the SG and SF because of his ability to be productive without the ball, his defense and rebounding.
- Azuibuke will just be getting his legs under him and will have a hard time fitting into the established rotation.
- Walker will get some run because of his 3 percentage, but not too much because he’s a rebounding liability and not a very active defender.

That’s 11 guys playing right there.  Mason, Rautins, Curry and Williams will have to bide their time and be ready for an opportunity.

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How much is too much for Carmelo?

Sep 28

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, Knicks Banter at 10:56 am | 1 Comment Tags:

The more this drags out, the more reluctant I am to give up too much in a Carmelo trade.  Funny how I’ve been falling in love with a team I haven’t even seen yet, but there is a potential for this team to be extremely entertaining, interesting and unpredictable to watch.  Teaming Carmelo up with Amare makes us predictably good in a way that I could only imagine would make me frustrated (ie. “why have we lost 3 in a row?”, “how are we not on pace to win 55 games?!”, “how do we not have home court?!”).

I realize how ridiculous this sounds, though.  Shouldn’t I simply want to root for the best team possible?  Would getting Carmelo give us the best team possible?  I think in the short run ‘Yes’, but in the long run ‘No’ and that is the root of my hesitation on this trade.

I keep reading that the Knicks would most likely have to part with Randolph and Gallo (and Curry) AND come up with a first round pick (via trade, which would mean Chandler most likely). Randolph and Gallo both seem like guys who could develop into top 30 in the league types (i.e. occasional all-stars).  Would I rather have two potentially marginal all-stars or one top 10 guy in Carmelo?  I guess the best way to figure that out is to look at what a Knicks roster looks like post trade.  Here’s what we’d have:

PG: Felton / Douglas / Rautins
SG: Azuibuke / Mason / Walker
SF: Anthony / Fields / PE Jr.
PF: Amare
C: Mozgov / Turiaf

It is an impressive lineup with a lot of depth at the 1-3, not that it matters much with D’Antoni’s short rotations.  But, with Amare and Mozgov predictably get in foul trouble, we’d definitely have to pick up someone for more front court depth.  Does Earl Barron have a guaranteed contract, yet?

On the flipside, what if Randolph and Gallo become as good as we hope?  What if Randolph becomes Pippen-like?  Or, being more realistic and lowering the bar a little, what if he gets to Tayshaun Prince’s peek level, something I think is highly realistic.  And, Gallo seems to have an almost Dirk-like ceiling?  But, maybe more realistically we get someone like Peja Stojakovic in his prime.  Do I rather have Carmelo or both peak-Peja and peak-Prince?  I tend to think that I’d rather have the two guys that I’m certain could compliment Amare really well.  But, this is a stars league, and Carmelo is a star.  It’s a tough call.

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Anyone notice Mozgov is ambidexterous?

Sep 13

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter at 4:19 pm | No Comments Tags:

Considering how smooth Mozgov is with both hands, chances are his ambidexterity wasn’t noticed.  But, it’s this ability that is getting me more excited about his potential than anything else.  When 80% of the big men in the league probably can’t finish with their weak hand, a ‘raw’ prospect like Mozgov is already keeping defenses honest because he can finish with either (a la David Lee).  Aside from exemplifying Mozgov’s skillset, it also speaks volumes to Mozgov being either coachable, or self-motivated enough to develop both hands (or both).   Watch this video for some examples:

Mozgov was quite a revelation for Knicks fans at the Worlds.  Before the tournament began I’d tempered expectations substantially.  But, getting to watch him, it seems all but impossible that he won’t be a rotation guy if not eventual starter.  Everyone keeps talking about how raw he is, but Mozgov is already showing an the ability to block and disrupt shots, boxout, play actively on the defensive end, and show an aforementioned ability to finish with either hand on the offensive end (especially in pick and roll situations).  He also plays with an infectious fire and energy that sparked his Russian team.

Becoming a Knick will entail a lot of adjustments for Mozgov: new culture, city, league, team, you name it.  But, if he finds a way to fit in with his teammates, and gets some consistent playing time from Coach D’Antoni, and enjoys life in New York off the court, Mozgov may develop into a top flight center in the league.  I might be tempted to start him this year if he proves to be comfortable alongside Amare.

Here’s how I imagine the Knicks distribution of minutes at the start of the season, taking into account Azuibuke not being 100%.

PG: Felton (32), Douglas (16)
SG: Chandler (20), Mason (16), Douglas (12)
SF: Gallo (34), Randolph (8), Chandler (6),
PF: Amare (38), Randolph (10)
C: Turiaf (20), Mozgov (18), Randolph (10)

Bench: Walker, Fields, Rautins, PE Jr., Curry
Injured: Azubuike

I have no idea what happens when Azubuike is healthy enough.  Missing chunks of preseason makes it tough to get into the rotation, but hopefully Azubuike will find a way. But at who’s expense?  Chandler’s maybe?  Maybe more of Chandler’s minutes shift to backing up the 3 and 4, which are his more natural positions anyway.  And, then, it’s Turiaf who’s playtime suffers at the expense of a developing Mozgoz and dynamic Randolph.  Or maybe Mason gets the squeeze.

By mid-season here is how I hope the starting lineup and rotation shake out with everyone playing to their potential:

PG: Felton
SG: Azuibuke
SF: Gallo
PF: Amare
C: Mozgov

Bench: Toney Douglas backing up the 1 and 2.  Randolph getting starters minutes backing up the 3-5.  Chandler playing well enough to get contributing minutes at 2-4.  And Turiaf getting sparkplug minutes and when there is foul trouble.  Mason is reduced to the odd man out in this scenerio which is just fine.

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If Melo wants to be in NY, the Knicks don’t have to give up much

Aug 18

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, NBA Talk at 11:04 am | 1 Comment Tags: ,

Not much.  Not much at all.  Gallo (or Randolph), Curry and a future pick could be enough.

Think about it.  If Carmelo makes it abundantly clear to the rest of the league that he wants to be a Knick, what other team would trade for him now just to lose him during free agency this summer?  Only a team that is willing to take the risk that they can convince him otherwise—that they have a superior roster to the Knicks.  Perhaps the Bulls can do that.  Maybe Orlando.  Maybe the Nets.  But really, this could be a one team race to obtain Melo if New York is where he wants to be.

And, all indications are that Melo only has eyes for New York.  He just got married to his wife who’s in the entertainment industry and is from the city.  He has his own roots to city (born in Brooklyn), the state (went to Syracuse), and the east coast.  He has a great relationship with Mike D’Antoni where he featured as one of Team USA’s three best players.  His marketing opportunities would explode as a Knick.  He knows the Knicks will spare no expense (which is more than you can say for the Bulls and Orlando).  And, his chances to win a championship might be best in NY.  Here is the Knicks roster if a Gallo/Curry trade goes down:

PG: Felton / Douglas
SG: Azubuike / Walker / Rautins
SF: Carmelo / Chandler / Fields
PF: Amare / Randolph
C: Turiaf / Mozgov / Jordan

That’s solid.  That can compete with any team including the Heat.

It should be noted, I’d really, really, really be bummed to trade Danilo.  I truly believe he has borderline all-star potential and is a great fit for SSOL, especially with his stroke.  But, you’ve gotta give something up to get something.  I’d add Walker and/or Chandler, too if it would sweeten the pot.  I’d be very reluctant to give up Randolph, though, since he’s so multidimensional which might be just as important as outside shooting to D’Antoni.

The Knicks truly have the upper hand in this situation.  Carmelo wants New York.  Denver doesn’t want to end up in Cleveland’s situation.  The longer this goes on, the less Denver will be able to get back.  At the trade deadline, a team surging for a playoff spot or a team thinking this is their one shot to put them over the top, might pull the trigger on renting Melo.  But how much would they really give up?

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