Yes! and the Foul

Finally on Team Carmelo

Posts Tagged 2010 plan

All in?

Feb 16

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Rumors, Trade Thoughts | No Comments

All sorts of talk about Tracy McGrady to the Knicks.  Rumor has the potential deal as some combination of Harrington or Hughes (ie, one of their expiring contracts), Jared Jeffries and his nearly $7 mil next year, Jordan Hill (as consolation for taking Jeffries), AND possibly swapping 2011 picks, giving up 2012 first rounder and 2011 second rounder for a McGrady tryout and possibly Joey Dorsey and Brian Cook.  SNYny (which has done a great job staying on top of all the Knicks rumors) even claims that it’s Donnie trying to get a Rockets 2010 pick in return that is holding up the deal.  Not sure how much sense that makes since any draft pick we obtain eats into this summer’s precious cap space, but I’d have to imagine that it’s the trading of picks in some form that’s holding up the deal.

Clearly, this would be a steep price to pay for McGrady, but this deal is NOT for McGrady, it’s to clear the last remaining cap space needed for the Knicks to obtain two max free agents this summer.  Yes, the price is steep because Donnie is backed into a corner (having made his 2010 free agency plans obvious — how could he have hidden them), but clearing JJ is an absolute must.  No one was taking that Jeffries contract back without a sweetener and Hill is the best non-impact sweetener we have.  Would you rather we include Gallo or Chandler?  Heck no.

The inclusion of draft picks is where a lot of us start to get squeamish and for good reason.  If Donnie comes up empty with the free agent class this summer, this franchise would appear to be toast with no picks to look forward to and no apparent fall back plan.  But, as long as Donnie has the foresight to add lottery protection to any traded picks — an absolute must — then I’m behind the deal.  That way, if we crash and burn we’ll still have those lottery protected picks to save us.  And, remember, in all likelihood we can always just buy some late first round picks in the future (as we bought the Lakers pick which resulted in Toney Douglas).

What do we expect to get out of McGrady though?  Reports have it that this would essential amount to a 30 game try out.  I think there is some truth to that.  It seems more like a risky, if all else fails this summer fall back plan.   I seriously doubt we re-sign McGrady this summer if we can sign Lebron or Joe Johnson or Dwayne Wade, unless it’s on the very cheap.  How cheap will depend on how well he plays out the season, and if there is any market for a fragile, yet talented headcase this summer.

As for McGrady’s impact this season, I’m a bit confused.  We have Gallo and Chandler.  Maybe one of them plays some more 4?  Maybe Gallo gets a little rest since he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall.  Also, with Jeffries being gone, it seems that Jonathan Bender will be back in the mix, and you have to assume that signing Bender was always about creating a backup plan for Jeffries’ eventual departure.  But JJ’s D will sorely be missed, to the point that it will offset any offense McGrady brings to the team.

And, the team’s most pressing need for almost two seasons STILL hasn’t been addressed — we need better PG play!  Can Donnie make something happen for DJ Augustin or Luke Ridnour?  Could Donnie have trumped the Outlaw/Blake for Camby trade being talked about today, with an offer of “all-star” David Lee?  Will Donnie pull the trigger on a Nate Robinson deal, maybe to the Celtics?  With Donnie’s ability to hide his trade intentions from the media, you have to think there is one last move up his sleeve?

Update: This is the best article I’ve seen explaining the cap situation this summer for the Knicks.
http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=155

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How the inevitable 2011 lockout might affect 2010 free agency

Feb 8

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, NBA Talk | 3 Comments

It’s ironic that the Knicks will have arrived at fiscal responsibility a year before the NBA team ownership finally saves themselves from financial ruin by instituting a lockout after the 2010-2011 season.  For Knicks fans, whose team has been the embodiment of reckless spending and paralyzing long-term contracts for the past decade, this lockout is too little, too late.

The owners and Stern have put out an extremely aggressive proposal to reign in cost and change how league conducts business. To sum it up:

The owners want to take a far greater percentage of the basketball-related income. They want to pay millions less for maximum deals and shorten contracts. Most of all, they want a hard salary cap and assurances that protect themselves against a diminished economy and, well, themselves. Everything is hurtling toward a 2011 lockout, a negotiation that’ll likely feel far more like a standoff.

And from the agent/player perspective, a great quote that sums up the Knicks fan experience the past few years:

I have so much respect for David Stern, and I know he wants to create the most competitive environment possible for the fans, but the current system is broken,” agent Mark Bartelstein said. “The luxury-tax concept is anti-competitive. We’ve created a system where in the midst of trying to sell tickets in the summer, we have teams admitting to their fans, ‘We’re not trying to win this year. …We’re waiting for 2010 or some year beyond.

Basically, if you remember the 2004 NHL lockout or even the 1998-1999 NBA half-season lockout, you’ve gotta be thinking to yourself, “we’re not going to have a 2011-2012 season.”

Here is my immediate concern for the Knicks: Because the NBA ownership is looking to cut the max length of contracts to 4 years and also looking to cut contracts dollars by around 30 percent, will max guys like Lebron, Wade and Bosh have even greater incentive to go where they can get the most money and most years right now?  Or, in other words, do these guys STAY with their teams because their current teams have the added advantage of being able to offer an extra year and a 15% premium over any other suitor?  In light of one year’s lost salary and possibly reduced future salaries, I think so.

All of which means the Knicks may go bust this summer.  While teams are crying that the current labor agreement is financially unsustainable (not sure how much I believe it), most of those same teams have already locked in their stars and assets beyond the 2011 season.  Clearly, they are trying to stay competitive, but chances are they’re paying now knowing that a 2011 lockout will probably cut salaries and do a lot to make team ownership profitable again. Meanwhile, Donnie has been trying to turn team Titanic around, shedding the team of all its assets for the opportunity to land Lebron and a friend.  IF Donnie comes up empty in free-agency this summer, not only will the past 2 years of being a Knicks fan become completely pointless, the future may be even worse.

Or would it?  Realistically, the Knicks may be perfectly positioned for a true rebuilding effort in 2012 since the team won’t be saddled with any long-term salaries (Lebron and friend possibly aside).  The Knicks may actually be able to truly start from scratch with a boat load of unfulfilled cap space, a promising top 5 2011 draft pick, and young studs Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  Can you guys wait another 2 years?

Personally, I’m looking forward to a lockout for two reasons.  First, the league absolutely has to abolish the salary-matching aspect of trades.  This aspect of trading alone has made rebuilding the Knicks nearly impossible.  Teams should be able to conduct business and trades as they see fit (ie. If they want to salary dump, fine.  If they want to take on salary, fine.)  If a hard salary cap is implemented, there really would be no need to keep matching salaries as part of trades. Additionally, teams have to have the right to cut players (NFL style) and not have it count against the salary cap.  It’s already ridiculous enough that the Knicks have to pay Eddy Curry for what amounts to gross job negligence.  What’s crazier is that if we cut him his salary still counts against our salary cap.  This can’t happen in the future NBA.

Finally, what will the players do in the meantime?  During the 2004 NHL lockout, players signed to leagues around the globe, many back in their home countries.  Some, like Czech Jaromir Jagr, went on to play in Omsk, Russia off in Siberia.  Do the international leagues inevitably pickup the NBA’s players.  If you’re Danilo Gallinari, do you sign on with an Italian team for the year?

Lots of questions.  Thoughts?

NBA aims to crush union in labor battle { Yahoo }

Foyle says owner proposal goes too far

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Why do I think Lebron joins Wade in Miami?

Jan 13

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, Knicks Banter | 2 Comments

(See update at end of post)

Maybe it’s because we’ve suffered through I don’t know how many straight days of brutal cold, dark, freezing weather here in NYC, but I think Lebron ends up in Miami.  I don’t think weather, climate or environment can be underestimated.  Seriously.  Think Shaq to LA and then Shaq back to Miami.  Also, remember Miami has a happy superstar (Wade) already in place, and has proved itself to be a successful franchise in the past decade, both major considerations for a super-duper star.  Not to mention that Miami seems like the ultimate playground for rich people.

Okay, so obviously Wade is already in Miami, has had success there by himself, and seems very inclined to stay in Miami.  What are the other pros and cons for a guy like Lebron?  While NY does have the glitz, the ‘world’s most famous arena’, and the ultimate superstar coach in Mike D’Antoni as enticements, Miami has it’s fair share of glitz, as well as a champion builder-winner Pat Riley to woo free agents.  I  think the most negative thing you can say about Miami is that it has an apathetic fan base.  But, whatever.  These guys are so loved by the whole country that they’ll soak up excitement and admiration everywhere they play.

This older ESPN article sums up the summer cap situation best.  Miami has $18 mil to spend this summer.  And the Chad Ford article on Bosh possibly being traded makes it seem like Miami really has the ability to pick Bosh up, re-sign Wade, and sign Lebron.   Not exactly sure how that would work — Bosh makes $15.8 mil, so Toronto would have to have an interest in taking back a combo of potential star, Beasley (at $4.6), and expiring cap space in Q (at $9.3).  Possible.  The talk of Toronto doing a Bynum for Bosh deal seems a little more enticing from a Toronto standpoint, I’d think.

Anyways, The Knicks meanwhile are likely to have $23 mil to spend this summer if nothing happens.  That’s one max guy (starting around $15 mil), and one solid guy ($8 mil).  And that doesn’t include signing David Lee, who potenially is your ‘one solid guy’ signing.  If Donnie pulls off the impossible and clears Jeffries $7 mil from next years books, then we are looking at 2 max guys, and we’re in business.  But, even then Wade and Lebron are the only two guys I’d consider true max guys in this economy, and I think that tandem only happens in Miami.

Seems to me that the Knicks should take advantage of the current economic climate, trade for a star on a struggling franchise now, and still preserve at least $15 mil for the summer, and one more max guy.

One last thing to note: OKC, who are uber-promising already as we witnessed just the other night will likely have $11.8 mil in cap space this summer to pick up a quality player.  That’s incredible.  If I’m David Lee, I might seriously be considering that OKC is where I want to be next year.

UPDATE: If you get a chance, listen to the latest Sports Guy podcast with Chad Ford. Neither are optimistic for the Knicks this summer. And, as much as it pains me to give either guy too much credit, they both sound logical in their pessimism.  The only real hope seems to be if the Knicks have a hidden promise from Lebron.

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What teams might be forced to dump their highly paid stars?

Dec 11

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, NBA Talk, Trade Thoughts | 3 Comments

Since the Knicks haven’t played since Monday, there hasn’t been too much to talk about.  But, there have been a number of articles about the financial state of the league.

Last year 12 of the 30 NBA franchises posted an operating loss.  And, it’s not looking any better thus far this year as NBA ticket revenues are down over 7%.  The worst hit?  Detroit, with revenues down a whopping 42%.  The Pistons are a middle of the pack team at 10-12.  Meanwhile, the financially profitable Bulls (7-13),  are having all sorts of problems on the court stemming from the loss of Ben Gordon to free agency.  Do the Pistons and Bulls undo their mistakes from this past summer and find a way to get Gordon back to the Bulls, while alleviating what are looking like some serious financial losses for the Pistons?  Do the Pistons opt to go another route and trade Rip Hamilton, who’s making $12 mil per for another 4 years?

Other teams losing a lot of money:

The Sacramento Kings (average gate receipts down 36.2 percent), Minnesota Timberwolves (down 24.4 percent), Phoenix Suns (down 23.8 percent), Los Angeles Clippers (down 23.3 percent), Milwaukee Bucks (down 23.2 percent), and Golden State Warriors (down 22.3 percent). Clearly, the Suns’ bottom line has not benefited from the team’s 15-7 start, nor have the Bucks been able to translate excitement over rookie point guard Brandon Jennings into ticket revenue.

Would the Kings be willing to talk Nate and/or Jeffries?  Not sure what would work or if that would be in the Knicks interests.

How about this: Can the Knicks take Razor Ramon Sessions off Minny’s hands, or even pry Rubio loose?  The Knicks could do Sessions (4 years @ 3.7 mil this year) and Mark Blount ($8 mil expiring) — a total of $26 mil in outgoing contracts — for Nate ($4 mil expiring) and Jeffries ($6.5 mil, 1 year left), taking back $17 mil and realizing $9 million in savings and added cap flexibility this summer.  Not too bad. Meanwhile, the Knicks will have shed $3 mil from their 2010 commitments which doesn’t sound like much, but could be the difference between a second tier star and a max contract worthy player.  Plus, we’d add some much needed PG depth.

Additionally, I’m not sure how Monta Ellis hasn’t been traded yet with the Warriors revenues being down 22% thus far this year.  Is he someone the Knicks should go after?  Would you trade Eddy Curry for Monta Ellis ($11 mil per for 5 years)? It’s a 2010 neutral trade, but would save GS $33 mil in long term savings.  Would GS be financially desperate enough to go this route?  Would adding Wilson Chandler or Jordan Hill make the deal a little more likely?

Maybe, even more fantastic. Would GS blow it up and do…

— Beidrins ($9 mil per for 4 more years) — a perfect center for D’Antoni
— Ellis ($11 mil per 4 more years)
— $100 mil outgoing for GS
— $19 mil in committed 2010 salary

For:

— Curry ($10.5 mil and 1 more year)
— Jared Jeffries ($6.5 and for 1 more)
— Jordan Hill ($2.5 mil for 1 more year, plus team options)
— Wilson Chandler ($1.3 mil for and 1 more year, plus team options)
— $42 mil in outgoing salary for the Knicks
— $22.8 mil in committed 2010 salary

The logic for Golden State: They effectively save $58 mil in long term salaries (not incl. team options). They get rid of a disgruntled star while freeing up space for future franchise guy, Stephen Curry. To top it off, they get 2 promising young players in Hill and Chander, as well as some needed low post scoring (potentially) in Eddy. 

The logic for the Knicks: We get two excellent uptempo players at positions of need — a serious scoring threat at PG and a true shot blocker and rebounding center. AND, most beautifully of all, Donnie saves $3.8 mil in 2010 salaries.

The Knicks this year would look like this, post-GS-trade:

PG: Ellis
SG: Hughes
SF: Gallo
PF: Lee
C: Beidrins
Bench: Harrington / Duhon / Douglas / Nate / Darko

The Warriors would look something like:

PG: Steph Curry
SG: Maggette
SF: Chandler
PF: Randolph
C: Turiaf
Bench: Eddy / Jeffries / J. Hill / Morrow / Raja Bell / Radman / Azubuike (injured)

You know, that ain’t half bad either for GS.  And, the franchise would stand to save $58 million!  That is awesome!!  DO IT, Donnie!!!!!

Link: Financial profile of the Knicks franchise

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Would OKC trade for Curry?

Nov 23

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals | 1 Comment

Alex had this trade idea to dump a suddenly, somewhat revitalized Eddy Curry:

TRADE idea

OKC get: Eddy Curry (10.5 mil, 2 years)

NYK get: Etan Thomas (7.9 mil, 1 year; Shawn Livingston 960M, 1year)

Why would OKC do it? They get the low-post threat they need, that will actually draw a double-team and free up space for shooters like Durant and Harden.  Curry’s contract would eat up 10 million in OKC’s cap number this summer (total payroll going from 38M to 49M) but can they really get Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh or Dirk to play in Oklahoma City? And even if they can, do they want to lock up a max contract when they have to extend the contracts of Durant, Green and Westbrook soon? They would still have room to sign a $5-8 million dollar player (depending on the ’10 cap number) if they wanted to. Plus Curry’s contract comes off the cap the next summer for the underrated 2011 FA Class.

Why do the Knicks do it? 2010 cap space obviously. And maybe a miracle happens and Livingston is finally healthy, playing hard and trying to prove he is a legit NBA starter.

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