Yes! and the Foul

Finally on Team Carmelo

Posts Tagged Donnie Walsh

Who stays, who goes?

Apr 29

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter | No Comments

This week we found out the Knicks would pick up Chauncey Billups $14 million option for this upcoming, possibly lockout shortened, season. Considering the lack of point guard quality in this coming free-agent class, and the potential of using Billups as a sign-and-trade chip for Chris Paul or Deron Williams in 2012, Walsh made the most prudent move. But, the Knicks are in a pickle now. They still need a rebounder and legit center, and with little to no cap room left, Walsh (if he’s here) is going to have to be creative or pull out some surprises (another Timo Mozgov, maybe?).

So with that, what does Walsh do? Who does he keep from this roster? Let’s go over it, player by player.

Amar’e Stoudemire (PF),
Carmelo Anthony (SF),
Chauncey Billups (PG) — Here’s your core. All will be here obviously. —STAY

Roster guys with contracts or player options:

Ronny Turiaf (C) — He has a player option for $4 million. I can’t imagine there is a market for him, so he’ll be around.  Ronny seemed to lose a lot of his spunk after the trade. I don’t konw if it was losing his buddies (Gallo and Timo) or that he’s an injury magnet, but despite some frustration with him he can be a big man contributor. —STAYS

Toney Douglas (SG) — After the Celtics series, can it be any more clear that Toney is not a point guard?  Aside from the fact that he can dribble the ball over half-court, he’s just not someone who can get the ball into tight spots.  I’ve kinda given up on ever transforming him into a point, but maybe Chauncey’s tutoring will have a greater impact than I imagine it could be.  —STAYS

Renaldo Balkman (SF/PF) — He’s an energy guy who can rebound, so part of me couldn’t understand why he didn’t get any run.  But, there are better options on the team.  He seems like dead weight, but has 2 more years at $1.6 per.  I’m thinking he’s a buyout candidate.  Heck the Knicks gave him away once already.  Maybe buyouts will be easier in the new CBA.  Here’s hoping.  —GONER

The team option guys:

Billy Walker (SG/SF) — After an underwhelming season where he was stuck behind Landry Fields at the two, he finally showed some extra effort and intensity in the playoff series.  With a team option at 1 mil, and the need to round out the roster, Walker probably returns.  —STAYS

Landry Fields (SG/SF) — It felt like 2 completely different campaigns for Fields.  He completely exceeded expectations in pre-trade, and then looked like a timid, confused rookie afterwards.  Did he hit the rookie wall?  Was he put in a position he wasn’t comfortable with?  Probably both, but I have confidence he’ll work on having a quicker shot release and work on his dribble and come back strong.  With an $800k team option, the Knicks still have a bargain. —STAYS

Andy Rautins (PG/SG) — We didn’t learn anything about the guy this season.  He has an $800 team option that probably gets picked up, considering the roster spots available.  Hey, he’s big, can play in the half court, and maybe shows he can hit the open 3. —STAYS

The restricted guys and now free agents:

Shawne Williams (SF/PF) — What a surprise this guy was.  Showed he could defend well, and do other things besides shoot the three. —STAYS

Sheldon Williams (PF/C) — Fell squarely into the “why isn’t D’Antoni playing this guy?” category. Seemed to do okay when given the chance (against Dwight Howard,etc), but wasn’t given a chance when it mattered in the playoffs. —GONER

Anthony Carter (PG) — He showed he could be a capable backup in short spurts. Unfortunately, he got asked to do too much.  It’d be tempting to keep him as a security blanket, but his vet min will be relatively costly, and the reality is he’s never hit the outside shot in his career and that makes him expendable. —GONER

Roger Mason (SG/PG) — Had his chance. —GONER

Jared Jeffries (position unknown) — He is such a strange player, and was forced to do too much in the playoffs. But, he’s a professional and D’Antoni finds a way to use him in creative ways. —STAYS

Derek Brown (SG) — I think he has something, but I’m guessing he wants to be somewhere else where he feels he’ll be given a chance. —GONER

So here’s what the depth chart looks like:

PG: Billups / Douglas / Rautins
SG: Fields / Walker
SF: Carmelo / Shawne W
PF: Amare / Jeffries
C: Turiaf

How does the roster get rounded out?

The Knicks have the 17th draft pick — Will Jimmer (PG) or Faried (rebounding) be there for the taking?

Is Jerome Jordan brought into the fold?  He seemed competent and would answer some of the big man depth issues.

Are there any international free agents out there?

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Will an inconsistent season force the Knicks hand on Carmelo?

Feb 15

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, Knicks Banter | No Comments

The Knicks are on pace for a .500 season.  Maybe.  They might be on the verge of winning 9 of 10 and making a strong run for the rest of the season.  Or they might only win only 2 of their next 10 games, struggle to make the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be surprised.  It’s been that kind of season.

But inconsistency was expected.  When you are starting two rookies on some nights (Fields and Mozgov), and/or two young players (Chandler and Gallo) who still have a difficult time asserting themselves in games, AND you can’t rebound and give other teams numerous second chances, our sense of how good this team really is blows wildly between pessimism and optimism.

During the latest downturn it’s easy to feel like Gallo, Chandler and Fields are worth giving up for that one legit superstar in Melo — a player who can take over games when it’s on the line.  But Donnie is a big picture kind of guy.  He has patience.  He’s seen players slowly and gradually improve.  He has a better sense than any of us what Gallo’s ceiling is, what Fields potential is, etc.  But, after 10 years of Knicks frustration and a unpredictable team owner, can Donnie afford to not strike a deal, even if it means selling the farm?

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Prediction time

Oct 26

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter | No Comments

For the past two seasons, Knicks fans have been rooting in a state of limbo, anticipating a 2010 free agency crop that would redeem nine miserable, brutal, agonizing seasons of embarrassing basketball.   We collectively thought we’d land Lebron, and at times it seemed inevitable and destined (if not secretly agreed to).  But, even if we didn’t land James (which most of us recognized as a possibility), we certainly thought we’d land 2 max-worthy players who would propel the Knicks to the top of the playoff heap.

Clearly it hasn’t happened this way.  Donnie made sure he landed at least one true star in Amar’e, but found landing a second free agent star elusive.  Instead, he went about rebuilding the team with a series of smaller moves, giving the Knicks youth, potential and (probably) trading assets.

His biggest non-Amar’e move was a sign and trade of our one star asset (David Lee), for 2 solid rotation players (Azuibuke and Turiaf) and a potential star in Anthony Randolph.  From there, Donnie wisely upgraded the point position with the best available guy on the free agent market – the serviceable, somewhat average Raymond Felton (who is surely an improvement over the dreadful and deliberate Duhon, but still not exactly an ideal D’Antoni point guard).  Donnie’s shrewdest moves were signing the agile, hard-working, completely off-the-radar, Russian center, Timofey Mozgov (a rare center who can actually play in D’Antoni’s offense), and then drafting the astonishingly capable, though curiously unknown Landry Fields, who was universally slammed as the 39th pick (even though no one knew a thing about him, including most draft gurus who didn’t even have him anywhere on their draft boards).

All in all, it was an exciting post season and Donnie did well.  I think the most troubling aspect to the beginning of the season is the renewed sense of uncertainty about the team roster.  Again, Knicks fans are stuck rooting for a team that probably won’t be the same at the end of the season, as it seems the Knicks will inevitability trade for Carmelo Anthony, and/or position themselves for Chris Paul or some other newly disgruntled star.

Now for the predictions!

Will the Knicks actually acquire Carmelo Anthony?

No. I keep waffling on this one, but I think the Nuggets will be obstinate in dealing with the Knicks.  Carmelo will soften his trade demands to include teams like the Clippers and Nets who will probably overachieve and become attractive alternatives.  Or some big market team making a playoff surge with a now or never attitude (especially with a lockout on the horizon) will roll the dice on trading for Carmelo.

What will the Knicks record be?  Will they make the playoffs?

The Knicks will finish 41-41 and make the playoffs as a 7th seed. The Knicks will take some time to figure it out, but the young guys like Randolph, Gallo and Mozgov will begin to find some consistency about a quarter into the season.  Felton will finally get comfortable with Amar’e, and feed him the ball when and where he likes it.  Toney Douglas will win us an extra 3 or 4 games through pure determination.

What can we expect from Amar’e?

Amar’e is going to average 30 and 9 and be in the MVP conversation. Without a identifiable and consistent second fiddle, Amare is going to step up and the Knicks are going to ride Amare as far as he can take them.  He’ll exceed expectations, and people will realize he is damn good with or without Steve Nash.  Additionally, D’Antoni is going to do all he can to make sure Amare stays out of foul trouble, letting Turiaf, Randolph, Mozgov, and Chandler defend whoever is a more difficult match up.

What will the rotation be 25 games into the season?

PG: Felton / SG: Chander / SF: Gallo / PF: Amare / C: Mozgov

- Toney Douglas will play both guard positions and get about 30 minutes a night.
- Turiaf will back up Mozgov, but not play too much.
- Randolph will back up Amare, and get spot minutes at other positions but will only be getting about 22 minutes a night.  He may even play alongside Amar’e at PF when Stat slides over to center.
- Fields will get time at the SG and SF because of his ability to be productive without the ball, his defense and rebounding.
- Azuibuke will just be getting his legs under him and will have a hard time fitting into the established rotation.
- Walker will get some run because of his 3 percentage, but not too much because he’s a rebounding liability and not a very active defender.

That’s 11 guys playing right there.  Mason, Rautins, Curry and Williams will have to bide their time and be ready for an opportunity.

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Is there a backup plan?

Feb 19

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Trade Thoughts | 3 Comments

Despite the impressive, necessary, risky and costly steps taken by Donnie to clear enough cap space this summer for 2 max guys, I’m still not one for thinking that Lebron is coming to New York.  Still don’t think Wade is coming.  Bosh, maybe.  Joe Johnson, maybe.

Are Bosh and Johnson max players?  I don’t think so.  Maybe they are 4/5th’s of a max contract, but not totally maxed out guys.  It’s taken a heck of a surrounding cast to get either Bosh or Johnson to really shine this season, and the Knicks being maxed out would make surrounding them with a solid cast next to impossible.

Will all 4 of these guys get max money?  Probably.  There are a lot of teams that cleared a lot of cap room, and after these 4 guys there aren’t too many good players to spend the money on.  This might be the last time for a team to splurge before the lockout happens.

Is it a disaster if the Knicks don’t sign one of these 4 dudes?  My initial feeling was yes, but the more I think about it, I’m inclined to say no because there is some incredible flexibility to be had with $32 mil to spend.  Next year we’ll have Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas as potential core players returning.   To be optimistic for once, lets say Spanish Chocolate fits in really well, and lets say McGrady shines.   We can pay Chocolate $3 mil, and McGrady $7 mil.   Clearly we need a center.  Looking over this list, maybe Jermaine O’Neal or Camby at $5 mil per is reasonable.  Also, while I’ve soured on Lee big time, we could bring him back at $9 mil per.  That’s $24 mil spent on 4 solid players that actually fit the roster.  Why not pick up Manu Ginobili for $6 mil, too?

Our roster could look like this next year: Gallo, Chandler, Lee, Douglas, McGrady, Sergio, JO, Gino.  Pretty solid.  But, maybe not what Walsh or Knicks fans have in mind.

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All in?

Feb 16

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Rumors, Trade Thoughts | No Comments

All sorts of talk about Tracy McGrady to the Knicks.  Rumor has the potential deal as some combination of Harrington or Hughes (ie, one of their expiring contracts), Jared Jeffries and his nearly $7 mil next year, Jordan Hill (as consolation for taking Jeffries), AND possibly swapping 2011 picks, giving up 2012 first rounder and 2011 second rounder for a McGrady tryout and possibly Joey Dorsey and Brian Cook.  SNYny (which has done a great job staying on top of all the Knicks rumors) even claims that it’s Donnie trying to get a Rockets 2010 pick in return that is holding up the deal.  Not sure how much sense that makes since any draft pick we obtain eats into this summer’s precious cap space, but I’d have to imagine that it’s the trading of picks in some form that’s holding up the deal.

Clearly, this would be a steep price to pay for McGrady, but this deal is NOT for McGrady, it’s to clear the last remaining cap space needed for the Knicks to obtain two max free agents this summer.  Yes, the price is steep because Donnie is backed into a corner (having made his 2010 free agency plans obvious — how could he have hidden them), but clearing JJ is an absolute must.  No one was taking that Jeffries contract back without a sweetener and Hill is the best non-impact sweetener we have.  Would you rather we include Gallo or Chandler?  Heck no.

The inclusion of draft picks is where a lot of us start to get squeamish and for good reason.  If Donnie comes up empty with the free agent class this summer, this franchise would appear to be toast with no picks to look forward to and no apparent fall back plan.  But, as long as Donnie has the foresight to add lottery protection to any traded picks — an absolute must — then I’m behind the deal.  That way, if we crash and burn we’ll still have those lottery protected picks to save us.  And, remember, in all likelihood we can always just buy some late first round picks in the future (as we bought the Lakers pick which resulted in Toney Douglas).

What do we expect to get out of McGrady though?  Reports have it that this would essential amount to a 30 game try out.  I think there is some truth to that.  It seems more like a risky, if all else fails this summer fall back plan.   I seriously doubt we re-sign McGrady this summer if we can sign Lebron or Joe Johnson or Dwayne Wade, unless it’s on the very cheap.  How cheap will depend on how well he plays out the season, and if there is any market for a fragile, yet talented headcase this summer.

As for McGrady’s impact this season, I’m a bit confused.  We have Gallo and Chandler.  Maybe one of them plays some more 4?  Maybe Gallo gets a little rest since he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall.  Also, with Jeffries being gone, it seems that Jonathan Bender will be back in the mix, and you have to assume that signing Bender was always about creating a backup plan for Jeffries’ eventual departure.  But JJ’s D will sorely be missed, to the point that it will offset any offense McGrady brings to the team.

And, the team’s most pressing need for almost two seasons STILL hasn’t been addressed — we need better PG play!  Can Donnie make something happen for DJ Augustin or Luke Ridnour?  Could Donnie have trumped the Outlaw/Blake for Camby trade being talked about today, with an offer of “all-star” David Lee?  Will Donnie pull the trigger on a Nate Robinson deal, maybe to the Celtics?  With Donnie’s ability to hide his trade intentions from the media, you have to think there is one last move up his sleeve?

Update: This is the best article I’ve seen explaining the cap situation this summer for the Knicks.
http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=155

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