Yes! and the Foul

Praying that the 2010 plan pays off

Posts Tagged Donnie Walsh

Is there a backup plan?

Feb 19

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Trade Thoughts | 3 Comments

Despite the impressive, necessary, risky and costly steps taken by Donnie to clear enough cap space this summer for 2 max guys, I’m still not one for thinking that Lebron is coming to New York.  Still don’t think Wade is coming.  Bosh, maybe.  Joe Johnson, maybe.

Are Bosh and Johnson max players?  I don’t think so.  Maybe they are 4/5th’s of a max contract, but not totally maxed out guys.  It’s taken a heck of a surrounding cast to get either Bosh or Johnson to really shine this season, and the Knicks being maxed out would make surrounding them with a solid cast next to impossible.

Will all 4 of these guys get max money?  Probably.  There are a lot of teams that cleared a lot of cap room, and after these 4 guys there aren’t too many good players to spend the money on.  This might be the last time for a team to splurge before the lockout happens.

Is it a disaster if the Knicks don’t sign one of these 4 dudes?  My initial feeling was yes, but the more I think about it, I’m inclined to say no because there is some incredible flexibility to be had with $32 mil to spend.  Next year we’ll have Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas as potential core players returning.   To be optimistic for once, lets say Spanish Chocolate fits in really well, and lets say McGrady shines.   We can pay Chocolate $3 mil, and McGrady $7 mil.   Clearly we need a center.  Looking over this list, maybe Jermaine O’Neal or Camby at $5 mil per is reasonable.  Also, while I’ve soured on Lee big time, we could bring him back at $9 mil per.  That’s $24 mil spent on 4 solid players that actually fit the roster.  Why not pick up Manu Ginobili for $6 mil, too?

Our roster could look like this next year: Gallo, Chandler, Lee, Douglas, McGrady, Sergio, JO, Gino.  Pretty solid.  But, maybe not what Walsh or Knicks fans have in mind.

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All in?

Feb 16

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter, Rumors, Trade Thoughts | No Comments

All sorts of talk about Tracy McGrady to the Knicks.  Rumor has the potential deal as some combination of Harrington or Hughes (ie, one of their expiring contracts), Jared Jeffries and his nearly $7 mil next year, Jordan Hill (as consolation for taking Jeffries), AND possibly swapping 2011 picks, giving up 2012 first rounder and 2011 second rounder for a McGrady tryout and possibly Joey Dorsey and Brian Cook.  SNYny (which has done a great job staying on top of all the Knicks rumors) even claims that it’s Donnie trying to get a Rockets 2010 pick in return that is holding up the deal.  Not sure how much sense that makes since any draft pick we obtain eats into this summer’s precious cap space, but I’d have to imagine that it’s the trading of picks in some form that’s holding up the deal.

Clearly, this would be a steep price to pay for McGrady, but this deal is NOT for McGrady, it’s to clear the last remaining cap space needed for the Knicks to obtain two max free agents this summer.  Yes, the price is steep because Donnie is backed into a corner (having made his 2010 free agency plans obvious — how could he have hidden them), but clearing JJ is an absolute must.  No one was taking that Jeffries contract back without a sweetener and Hill is the best non-impact sweetener we have.  Would you rather we include Gallo or Chandler?  Heck no.

The inclusion of draft picks is where a lot of us start to get squeamish and for good reason.  If Donnie comes up empty with the free agent class this summer, this franchise would appear to be toast with no picks to look forward to and no apparent fall back plan.  But, as long as Donnie has the foresight to add lottery protection to any traded picks — an absolute must — then I’m behind the deal.  That way, if we crash and burn we’ll still have those lottery protected picks to save us.  And, remember, in all likelihood we can always just buy some late first round picks in the future (as we bought the Lakers pick which resulted in Toney Douglas).

What do we expect to get out of McGrady though?  Reports have it that this would essential amount to a 30 game try out.  I think there is some truth to that.  It seems more like a risky, if all else fails this summer fall back plan.   I seriously doubt we re-sign McGrady this summer if we can sign Lebron or Joe Johnson or Dwayne Wade, unless it’s on the very cheap.  How cheap will depend on how well he plays out the season, and if there is any market for a fragile, yet talented headcase this summer.

As for McGrady’s impact this season, I’m a bit confused.  We have Gallo and Chandler.  Maybe one of them plays some more 4?  Maybe Gallo gets a little rest since he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall.  Also, with Jeffries being gone, it seems that Jonathan Bender will be back in the mix, and you have to assume that signing Bender was always about creating a backup plan for Jeffries’ eventual departure.  But JJ’s D will sorely be missed, to the point that it will offset any offense McGrady brings to the team.

And, the team’s most pressing need for almost two seasons STILL hasn’t been addressed — we need better PG play!  Can Donnie make something happen for DJ Augustin or Luke Ridnour?  Could Donnie have trumped the Outlaw/Blake for Camby trade being talked about today, with an offer of “all-star” David Lee?  Will Donnie pull the trigger on a Nate Robinson deal, maybe to the Celtics?  With Donnie’s ability to hide his trade intentions from the media, you have to think there is one last move up his sleeve?

Update: This is the best article I’ve seen explaining the cap situation this summer for the Knicks.
http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=155

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How the inevitable 2011 lockout might affect 2010 free agency

Feb 8

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, NBA Talk | 2 Comments

It’s ironic that the Knicks will have arrived at fiscal responsibility a year before the NBA team ownership finally saves themselves from financial ruin by instituting a lockout after the 2010-2011 season.  For Knicks fans, whose team has been the embodiment of reckless spending and paralyzing long-term contracts for the past decade, this lockout is too little, too late.

The owners and Stern have put out an extremely aggressive proposal to reign in cost and change how league conducts business. To sum it up:

The owners want to take a far greater percentage of the basketball-related income. They want to pay millions less for maximum deals and shorten contracts. Most of all, they want a hard salary cap and assurances that protect themselves against a diminished economy and, well, themselves. Everything is hurtling toward a 2011 lockout, a negotiation that’ll likely feel far more like a standoff.

And from the agent/player perspective, a great quote that sums up the Knicks fan experience the past few years:

I have so much respect for David Stern, and I know he wants to create the most competitive environment possible for the fans, but the current system is broken,” agent Mark Bartelstein said. “The luxury-tax concept is anti-competitive. We’ve created a system where in the midst of trying to sell tickets in the summer, we have teams admitting to their fans, ‘We’re not trying to win this year. …We’re waiting for 2010 or some year beyond.

Basically, if you remember the 2004 NHL lockout or even the 1998-1999 NBA half-season lockout, you’ve gotta be thinking to yourself, “we’re not going to have a 2011-2012 season.”

Here is my immediate concern for the Knicks: Because the NBA ownership is looking to cut the max length of contracts to 4 years and also looking to cut contracts dollars by around 30 percent, will max guys like Lebron, Wade and Bosh have even greater incentive to go where they can get the most money and most years right now?  Or, in other words, do these guys STAY with their teams because their current teams have the added advantage of being able to offer an extra year and a 15% premium over any other suitor?  In light of one year’s lost salary and possibly reduced future salaries, I think so.

All of which means the Knicks may go bust this summer.  While teams are crying that the current labor agreement is financially unsustainable (not sure how much I believe it), most of those same teams have already locked in their stars and assets beyond the 2011 season.  Clearly, they are trying to stay competitive, but chances are they’re paying now knowing that a 2011 lockout will probably cut salaries and do a lot to make team ownership profitable again. Meanwhile, Donnie has been trying to turn team Titanic around, shedding the team of all its assets for the opportunity to land Lebron and a friend.  IF Donnie comes up empty in free-agency this summer, not only will the past 2 years of being a Knicks fan become completely pointless, the future may be even worse.

Or would it?  Realistically, the Knicks may be perfectly positioned for a true rebuilding effort in 2012 since the team won’t be saddled with any long-term salaries (Lebron and friend possibly aside).  The Knicks may actually be able to truly start from scratch with a boat load of unfulfilled cap space, a promising top 5 2011 draft pick, and young studs Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  Can you guys wait another 2 years?

Personally, I’m looking forward to a lockout for two reasons.  First, the league absolutely has to abolish the salary-matching aspect of trades.  This aspect of trading alone has made rebuilding the Knicks nearly impossible.  Teams should be able to conduct business and trades as they see fit (ie. If they want to salary dump, fine.  If they want to take on salary, fine.)  If a hard salary cap is implemented, there really would be no need to keep matching salaries as part of trades. Additionally, teams have to have the right to cut players (NFL style) and not have it count against the salary cap.  It’s already ridiculous enough that the Knicks have to pay Eddy Curry for what amounts to gross job negligence.  What’s crazier is that if we cut him his salary still counts against our salary cap.  This can’t happen in the future NBA.

Finally, what will the players do in the meantime?  During the 2004 NHL lockout, players signed to leagues around the globe, many back in their home countries.  Some, like Czech Jaromir Jagr, went on to play in Omsk, Russia off in Siberia.  Do the international leagues inevitably pickup the NBA’s players.  If you’re Danilo Gallinari, do you sign on with an Italian team for the year?

Lots of questions.  Thoughts?

NBA aims to crush union in labor battle { Yahoo }

Foyle says owner proposal goes too far

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What to make of the Jonathan Bender signing?

Dec 14

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Knicks Banter | No Comments

I honestly have no idea. Donnie’s history has a ton to do with it. Mike D likes long, versatile guys. Maybe there is something brewing for Eddy. Or maybe Donnie is just doing an old friend a favor. Pretty fortunate for Bender that he hasn’t even had to put in a stint in the D-League. Could Darko be any less motivated at this point? Any thoughts?

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What teams might be forced to dump their highly paid stars?

Dec 11

Posted by YesandtheFoul in Hypotheticals, NBA Talk, Trade Thoughts | 3 Comments

Since the Knicks haven’t played since Monday, there hasn’t been too much to talk about.  But, there have been a number of articles about the financial state of the league.

Last year 12 of the 30 NBA franchises posted an operating loss.  And, it’s not looking any better thus far this year as NBA ticket revenues are down over 7%.  The worst hit?  Detroit, with revenues down a whopping 42%.  The Pistons are a middle of the pack team at 10-12.  Meanwhile, the financially profitable Bulls (7-13),  are having all sorts of problems on the court stemming from the loss of Ben Gordon to free agency.  Do the Pistons and Bulls undo their mistakes from this past summer and find a way to get Gordon back to the Bulls, while alleviating what are looking like some serious financial losses for the Pistons?  Do the Pistons opt to go another route and trade Rip Hamilton, who’s making $12 mil per for another 4 years?

Other teams losing a lot of money:

The Sacramento Kings (average gate receipts down 36.2 percent), Minnesota Timberwolves (down 24.4 percent), Phoenix Suns (down 23.8 percent), Los Angeles Clippers (down 23.3 percent), Milwaukee Bucks (down 23.2 percent), and Golden State Warriors (down 22.3 percent). Clearly, the Suns’ bottom line has not benefited from the team’s 15-7 start, nor have the Bucks been able to translate excitement over rookie point guard Brandon Jennings into ticket revenue.

Would the Kings be willing to talk Nate and/or Jeffries?  Not sure what would work or if that would be in the Knicks interests.

How about this: Can the Knicks take Razor Ramon Sessions off Minny’s hands, or even pry Rubio loose?  The Knicks could do Sessions (4 years @ 3.7 mil this year) and Mark Blount ($8 mil expiring) — a total of $26 mil in outgoing contracts — for Nate ($4 mil expiring) and Jeffries ($6.5 mil, 1 year left), taking back $17 mil and realizing $9 million in savings and added cap flexibility this summer.  Not too bad. Meanwhile, the Knicks will have shed $3 mil from their 2010 commitments which doesn’t sound like much, but could be the difference between a second tier star and a max contract worthy player.  Plus, we’d add some much needed PG depth.

Additionally, I’m not sure how Monta Ellis hasn’t been traded yet with the Warriors revenues being down 22% thus far this year.  Is he someone the Knicks should go after?  Would you trade Eddy Curry for Monta Ellis ($11 mil per for 5 years)? It’s a 2010 neutral trade, but would save GS $33 mil in long term savings.  Would GS be financially desperate enough to go this route?  Would adding Wilson Chandler or Jordan Hill make the deal a little more likely?

Maybe, even more fantastic. Would GS blow it up and do…

— Beidrins ($9 mil per for 4 more years) — a perfect center for D’Antoni
— Ellis ($11 mil per 4 more years)
— $100 mil outgoing for GS
— $19 mil in committed 2010 salary

For:

— Curry ($10.5 mil and 1 more year)
— Jared Jeffries ($6.5 and for 1 more)
— Jordan Hill ($2.5 mil for 1 more year, plus team options)
— Wilson Chandler ($1.3 mil for and 1 more year, plus team options)
— $42 mil in outgoing salary for the Knicks
— $22.8 mil in committed 2010 salary

The logic for Golden State: They effectively save $58 mil in long term salaries (not incl. team options). They get rid of a disgruntled star while freeing up space for future franchise guy, Stephen Curry. To top it off, they get 2 promising young players in Hill and Chander, as well as some needed low post scoring (potentially) in Eddy. 

The logic for the Knicks: We get two excellent uptempo players at positions of need — a serious scoring threat at PG and a true shot blocker and rebounding center. AND, most beautifully of all, Donnie saves $3.8 mil in 2010 salaries.

The Knicks this year would look like this, post-GS-trade:

PG: Ellis
SG: Hughes
SF: Gallo
PF: Lee
C: Beidrins
Bench: Harrington / Duhon / Douglas / Nate / Darko

The Warriors would look something like:

PG: Steph Curry
SG: Maggette
SF: Chandler
PF: Randolph
C: Turiaf
Bench: Eddy / Jeffries / J. Hill / Morrow / Raja Bell / Radman / Azubuike (injured)

You know, that ain’t half bad either for GS.  And, the franchise would stand to save $58 million!  That is awesome!!  DO IT, Donnie!!!!!

Link: Financial profile of the Knicks franchise

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