Posts Tagged Hypotheticals

Sell!!!

I’m looking ot start the week off in a good mood, so there’s no use in reviewing a dreadful Knicks weekend other than to say that this team looks lifeless, tired, out of sync, and generally inept.  Gallo is hitting the wall and trying to do a little too much.  Chandler and Lee are doing what they can, but just aren’t good enough to carry the team.  With my least favorite Knick, Al Harrington, injured, we’re getting absolutely nothing offensively off the bench.

If Walsh and D’Antoni were holding on to any illusion about making the playoffs this season, surely it must’ve been shattered this weekend.  And, really, this could be a best case scenerio for the future of the franchise.  Whereas last year there was still some optimism and hope at the playoff deadline, and that hope probably stopped Donnie from pulling the trigger on any cap clearing Nate or Lee deal, this year we can more easily call a spade a spade.

With all hope lost, it’s time to blow this up completely.  It’s time to trade Jared Jeffries.  It’s time to see if Nate and Lee will accept being dealt.  It’s time to trade Chandler if we need to include him in a deal.  I’ll even give up Hill or Douglas.  It’s time to trade anyone but Gallo to open up another 6 mil this summer.   This season is over.

Hypotheticals I’m in favor of:

Trade idea #1:

Tracy McGrady
FOR
Jordan Hill + Cuttino Mobley + Jeffries

Everyone is talking about McGrady to the Knicks.  I do this in a heart beat, not because McGrady will save this season but because it saves the Knicks over 9 mil this summer.  Houston gets a productive prospect out of the deal in Jordan Hill, a versatile team defender in Jeffries, and potential insurance savings from Mobley.

Trade idea #2:

Mike Miller (last year of $10 mil contract)
FOR
Jordan Hill + Jeffries + Toney Douglas

Washington is going to blow their team up, and will probably find a way to shed/save money in dealing Jamison and Butler.  In this deal Washington doesn’t save money, but it does get them 2 young players for rebuilding.  For the Knicks, it saves them over $10 mil in 2010 contracts, despite having to give up a lot of youth.

And my favorite. Trade idea #3:

Josh Howard (last year at $10, having a bad year) + Beaubois (rookie contract, $1.1 mil.  athletic pg prospect)
FOR
Chandler ($1.2) + Nate ($4) + Jeffries ($6.5, 2 yrs).

The Knicks get their 2010 cap room, and an exciting PG prospect.  Dallas trades little used rookie PG to get 3 players that can help them win it all this year.  They get some needed backup scoring at the guard position.  They get a super versatile, team-oriented wingman in Chandler who can play on both ends of the court.  And they get a D specialist in Jeffries, who they can sick on anyone giving them trouble.

Other cap saving ideas???

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What teams might be forced to dump their highly paid stars?

Since the Knicks haven’t played since Monday, there hasn’t been too much to talk about.  But, there have been a number of articles about the financial state of the league.

Last year 12 of the 30 NBA franchises posted an operating loss.  And, it’s not looking any better thus far this year as NBA ticket revenues are down over 7%.  The worst hit?  Detroit, with revenues down a whopping 42%.  The Pistons are a middle of the pack team at 10-12.  Meanwhile, the financially profitable Bulls (7-13),  are having all sorts of problems on the court stemming from the loss of Ben Gordon to free agency.  Do the Pistons and Bulls undo their mistakes from this past summer and find a way to get Gordon back to the Bulls, while alleviating what are looking like some serious financial losses for the Pistons?  Do the Pistons opt to go another route and trade Rip Hamilton, who’s making $12 mil per for another 4 years?

Other teams losing a lot of money:

The Sacramento Kings (average gate receipts down 36.2 percent), Minnesota Timberwolves (down 24.4 percent), Phoenix Suns (down 23.8 percent), Los Angeles Clippers (down 23.3 percent), Milwaukee Bucks (down 23.2 percent), and Golden State Warriors (down 22.3 percent). Clearly, the Suns’ bottom line has not benefited from the team’s 15-7 start, nor have the Bucks been able to translate excitement over rookie point guard Brandon Jennings into ticket revenue.

Would the Kings be willing to talk Nate and/or Jeffries?  Not sure what would work or if that would be in the Knicks interests.

How about this: Can the Knicks take Razor Ramon Sessions off Minny’s hands, or even pry Rubio loose?  The Knicks could do Sessions (4 years @ 3.7 mil this year) and Mark Blount ($8 mil expiring) — a total of $26 mil in outgoing contracts — for Nate ($4 mil expiring) and Jeffries ($6.5 mil, 1 year left), taking back $17 mil and realizing $9 million in savings and added cap flexibility this summer.  Not too bad. Meanwhile, the Knicks will have shed $3 mil from their 2010 commitments which doesn’t sound like much, but could be the difference between a second tier star and a max contract worthy player.  Plus, we’d add some much needed PG depth.

Additionally, I’m not sure how Monta Ellis hasn’t been traded yet with the Warriors revenues being down 22% thus far this year.  Is he someone the Knicks should go after?  Would you trade Eddy Curry for Monta Ellis ($11 mil per for 5 years)? It’s a 2010 neutral trade, but would save GS $33 mil in long term savings.  Would GS be financially desperate enough to go this route?  Would adding Wilson Chandler or Jordan Hill make the deal a little more likely?

Maybe, even more fantastic. Would GS blow it up and do…

— Beidrins ($9 mil per for 4 more years) — a perfect center for D’Antoni
— Ellis ($11 mil per 4 more years)
— $100 mil outgoing for GS
— $19 mil in committed 2010 salary

For:

— Curry ($10.5 mil and 1 more year)
— Jared Jeffries ($6.5 and for 1 more)
— Jordan Hill ($2.5 mil for 1 more year, plus team options)
— Wilson Chandler ($1.3 mil for and 1 more year, plus team options)
— $42 mil in outgoing salary for the Knicks
— $22.8 mil in committed 2010 salary

The logic for Golden State: They effectively save $58 mil in long term salaries (not incl. team options). They get rid of a disgruntled star while freeing up space for future franchise guy, Stephen Curry. To top it off, they get 2 promising young players in Hill and Chander, as well as some needed low post scoring (potentially) in Eddy. 

The logic for the Knicks: We get two excellent uptempo players at positions of need — a serious scoring threat at PG and a true shot blocker and rebounding center. AND, most beautifully of all, Donnie saves $3.8 mil in 2010 salaries.

The Knicks this year would look like this, post-GS-trade:

PG: Ellis
SG: Hughes
SF: Gallo
PF: Lee
C: Beidrins
Bench: Harrington / Duhon / Douglas / Nate / Darko

The Warriors would look something like:

PG: Steph Curry
SG: Maggette
SF: Chandler
PF: Randolph
C: Turiaf
Bench: Eddy / Jeffries / J. Hill / Morrow / Raja Bell / Radman / Azubuike (injured)

You know, that ain’t half bad either for GS.  And, the franchise would stand to save $58 million!  That is awesome!!  DO IT, Donnie!!!!!

Link: Financial profile of the Knicks franchise

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Would OKC trade for Curry?

Alex had this trade idea to dump a suddenly, somewhat revitalized Eddy Curry:

TRADE idea

OKC get: Eddy Curry (10.5 mil, 2 years)

NYK get: Etan Thomas (7.9 mil, 1 year; Shawn Livingston 960M, 1year)

Why would OKC do it? They get the low-post threat they need, that will actually draw a double-team and free up space for shooters like Durant and Harden.  Curry’s contract would eat up 10 million in OKC’s cap number this summer (total payroll going from 38M to 49M) but can they really get Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh or Dirk to play in Oklahoma City? And even if they can, do they want to lock up a max contract when they have to extend the contracts of Durant, Green and Westbrook soon? They would still have room to sign a $5-8 million dollar player (depending on the ’10 cap number) if they wanted to. Plus Curry’s contract comes off the cap the next summer for the underrated 2011 FA Class.

Why do the Knicks do it? 2010 cap space obviously. And maybe a miracle happens and Livingston is finally healthy, playing hard and trying to prove he is a legit NBA starter.

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T-Mac!

T-Mac is being paid $22MM this year, expiring. The Rockets don’t want him around.

The Rockets are over the luxury tax line.

You can make a trade within 10%.

This means that if we were to trade them $20MM of contracts, the savings to the Rockets this year would be $4MM.  Give them another $3MM, and that’s $7 million of savings.

Is that enough to pay Jeffries $7 million salary next year?  Yes it is.

Only the Knicks have the crazy near-expiring contracts to make it work.  Hughes and Jeffries.  Or Eddy and Darko.  Or whatever combo that includes Curry or Jeffries.  Only sticking point is that the Rockets are too smart not to know how overpaid both Jeffries and Curry are.  But this isn’t a talent thing, it’s a “we need to get rid of T-Mac so he doesn’t poison the atmosphere and there aren’t many teams that will do a trade that won’t cost us money in coming years.”

Or, if the Knicks just want a shake-up, they could trade a couple of expirings for McGrady (Harrington, Darko, etc.) plus a 2nd round draft pick or something.

The Rockets have just become destination #1 for some contract jettisoning (replacing Minnesota), plus we see what T-Mac has left!  A trade with Minnesota or Houston is coming . . .

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Is Iverson worth it to Larry Brown?

We all know LB is on crazy pills.  He’s old, impatient and wants to win now (the team is 3-7).  He probably talked MJ into the Stephen Jackson trade.  He talked Isiah into Steve F-ing Francis, literally giving away Trevor Ariza in the process.  Come on Larry, sign Iverson!  Sign him!!!  Sign him!!!!

And then, to make space trade us DJ Augustin for Wilson Chandler.  It’s perfect!  It has to happen!  It’s destiny!!!

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